The Big Ten, which was the driving force behind the push for a 24-team College Football Playoff, could use that expanded bracket now.
With Ohio State's convincing home loss to Oregon, the Big Ten is down to two playoff teams: Indiana and undefeated UCLA. The Buckeyes are 6-5 in their past 11 games, dating back to last season. With Ohio State out, one of the biggest questions heading into tonight's ranking (9 ET, ESPN) is how the committee handles No. 4 Indiana after the Hoosiers' bye week.
Will No. 4 IU drop because of the results that happened around it, starting with Notre Dame's statement win against No. 1 Miami? Or will the committee hold firm in its belief that the Hoosiers are still the best team in the state?
It's hardly the only question.
How far will the Canes and BYU fall following their respective losses? Is the Big 12 a Utah-or-bust conference, or will the committee reward Texas Tech or Houston with a top-12 spot? And will undefeated UCLA make a move after a gritty road win at Minnesota, or does its lack of a true statement win hold it back?
One thing seems clear: With five teams still projected in the top 10, the SEC isn't going anywhere. Miami's loss opened the door for Georgia to reassert itself and the league at the top of the sport again.
Saturday provided some clarity, but contenders still have time to build -- or bust -- their résumés. Separation, though, is starting to occur, and the Bubble Watch is tracking it for you. Teams with "would be in" status below are in this week's bracket based on ESPN's top 12 projection after Week 10's games. For each Power 4 conference, we've also listed "last team in" and "first team out." These are the true bubble teams hovering around inclusion. Teams labeled "still in the mix" haven't been eliminated but have work to do. A team that is "out" will have to wait until next year.
The conferences below are listed in order of the number of bids they'd receive, ranked from the most to least, based on the latest top-12 projection.
Jump to a conference:
ACC | Big 12 | Big Ten
SEC | Independent | Group of 6
Bracket
SEC
Would be in: Georgia, Alabama, Texas, Tennessee, Kentucky
Last team in: Kentucky. The Wildcats' chances of reaching the SEC title game took a big hit after Saturday's loss to Tennessee, but Kentucky is still ranked in the top six in ESPN's strength of schedule and strength of record metrics. Kentucky still has a 36.5% chance to reach the playoff, according to the Allstate Playoff Predictor. Wins against South Carolina, LSU and Oklahoma are keeping Kentucky in the conversation for now. The Wildcats have one more chance at a signature win to impress the committee -- Nov. 21 at Missouri -- but ESPN's FPI gives the Wildcats only a 38.3% chance to win. Kentucky can't afford for a third loss.
First team out: Ole Miss. The Rebels are out of the playoff conversation and need to run the table and get some help to get back in. They're the first team out only because of their head-to-head win against LSU, which also has three losses. After their convincing home loss to Georgia on Saturday night, the Rebels' playoff chances sank to 37.3%, according to the Allstate Playoff Predictor. Ole Miss was also essentially eliminated from playing in the SEC title game. With a remaining schedule that includes Oklahoma, Wofford and Mississippi State, it's unlikely that the Rebels have enough opportunities to sufficiently impress the committee to compensate for such a lopsided loss to Georgia.
Still in the mix: LSU. The difference between LSU and Ole Miss -- in spite of the head-to-head -- is that the Tigers can still change the SEC race and, in turn, the playoff picture with wins against Texas and Tennessee over the next two weeks. ESPN's FPI gives LSU at least a 50% chance to win all three of its remaining games, including the regular-season finale at Arkansas. LSU is No. 5 in overall efficiency and has the No. 9-ranked remaining strength of schedule. Ole Miss's remaining schedule ranks No. 54.
Out: Arkansas, Auburn, Florida, Mississippi State, Missouri, Oklahoma, South Carolina, Texas A&M, Vanderbilt
Big Ten
Would be in: Indiana, UCLA
Last team in: UCLA. Some committee members will likely push for undefeated UCLA to move up from its current No. 8 spot following Saturday's gutsy road win at Minnesota. The Bruins are No. 1 in ESPN's strength of record metric, but they rank No. 43 in offensive efficiency and No. 11 in defensive efficiency. Three of their opponents (Cal, San Diego State and Nevada) rank No. 93 or worse in the FPI. Still, no team has a better chance to reach the Big Ten title game (68.3%), where the Bruins' most likely opponent is Indiana (65.1%). UCLA beat the Golden Gophers on the road, and one-loss Indiana struggled to top Minnesota at home.
First team out: Iowa. Don't be surprised if the Hawkeyes make a move Tuesday night after some upsets above them, particularly in the SEC. The committee respects wins against opponents above .500, and Iowa has four (Michigan, Washington, Wisconsin and Northwestern). The Hawkeyes are No. 13 in overall efficiency, and have been particularly strong on defense (No. 7).
Still in the mix: USC, Oregon, Ohio State, Wisconsin. They all still have at least a 4% chance of reaching the Big Ten championship game. Behind UCLA and Indiana, Oregon (27.3%) has the next-best chance, followed by Ohio State (19.6%) as the only other team above 10%.
Out: Illinois, Maryland, Michigan, Michigan State, Minnesota, Nebraska, Northwestern, Penn State, Purdue, Rutgers, Washington
Big 12
Would be in: Utah, Texas Tech
Last team in: Texas Tech. The Red Raiders struggled to beat West Virginia and are No. 14 in ESPN's strength of record metric, but because they have only one loss -- and wins against Houston and Arizona -- they're back in the conversation this week. Texas Tech also earned a promotion by default, with Ole Miss, LSU and Ohio State all picking up their third loss in Week 10. Texas Tech is the most likely opponent to face Utah in the Big 12 title game, and the Big 12 champ is guaranteed a spot in the CFP. This could be fleeting, though, as the Red Raiders have back-to-back road trips to Oklahoma State and Baylor. The FPI gives Texas Tech less than a 50% chance to beat Oklahoma State, and a second loss would almost certainly knock the Red Raiders out of contention.
First team out: BYU. Whether the Cougars are No. 12 on Tuesday night or lower doesn't matter much, because either way, they'd be out of the playoff if it were today. The No. 12 team will get bumped out to make room for the committee's highest-ranked Group of 6 team, which is still projected to be Boise State. BYU has a 19.1% chance to reach the Big 12 title game, fourth best behind Utah, Texas Tech and Houston. At this point, BYU likely has to win the Big 12 to reach the CFP. BYU has a bad loss at UCF but also one of the country's best wins against Notre Dame, and that is why it's still hanging on to the bubble.
Still in the mix: Houston, Arizona, Oklahoma State. All three of these teams have at least a 4% chance to reach the playoff, and that's because they each still have at least an 11% chance to reach the Big 12 title game, according to ESPN Analytics.
Out: Arizona State, Baylor, Cincinnati, Colorado, Kansas, Kansas State, Iowa State, TCU, UCF, West Virginia
ACC
Would be in: Miami
Last team in: Miami. The loss to Notre Dame knocked the Canes out of the No. 1 spot in the bracket, but they are still a playoff team on track to lock up a spot as the ACC champion. Miami has a 99.9% chance to reach the ACC championship game and 74.1% chance to win it, according to ESPN Analytics. Because of that, no team in the country (including Georgia, Alabama and Notre Dame) has a better chance to reach the playoff (97.6%). The Canes also have the highest chance to earn a first-round bye (73.9%), and are one of four teams with at least a 14% chance to win the national title (17.3%).
First team out: Wake Forest. The committee could consider the Deacs for a top-12 spot this week instead of BYU after the Cougars lost to Utah, but some in the room will probably struggle with promoting Wake Forest after a win against Merrimack out of the FCS. Wake Forest is on track to face Miami in the ACC title game, but the Demon Deacons' toughest remaining regular-season opponent is on Saturday at SMU. The FPI gives Wake Forest a 59.4% chance to win. Wake's current schedule strength is No. 68, but it's ranked No. 6 in overall efficiency. The Demon Deacons can lock up a spot in the playoff with the ACC title but will fall into the "out" category with a second loss -- especially if it happens at SMU.
Still in the mix: SMU. The Mustangs are here because they still have a 17.3% chance to reach the ACC championship game, and that will increase with a win Saturday against Wake Forest. With losses to Louisville and Syracuse, SMU's only path to the playoff is through the ACC title, but the Mustangs could also play the role of spoiler with an upset win at Notre Dame on Nov. 21.
Out: Boston College, Cal, Clemson, Duke, Florida State, Georgia Tech, Louisville, North Carolina, NC State, Pitt, Stanford, Syracuse, Virginia, Virginia Tech
Independent
Would be in: Notre Dame. Barring a catastrophic upset this month, Notre Dame is a lock for the CFP after its win against Miami. Here's the reality: It doesn't matter how it happened, what officiating calls impacted the game, that Miami was without injured Heisman hopeful Malachi Toney, or exactly where in the top 12 Notre Dame lands Tuesday night. All that matters is Notre Dame will be in the top 12 because that will guarantee it a spot in the field on Selection Day. Notre Dame has a 92.8% chance to reach the CFP -- fourth best in the country, according to the Allstate Playoff Predictor. Notre Dame also has at least a 90% chance to win each of its last three games (vs. Boston College, vs. SMU and at Syracuse). The question isn't whether Notre Dame is in, it's whether it has a first-round bye or a first-round home game.
Group of 6
Would be in: Boise State. The Broncos continue to remain the most likely representative from a Group of 6 conference, as they were the only team ranked in the committee's initial top 25. That shouldn't change Tuesday night after Boise State's 64-38 win at Colorado State. The Broncos lead the Group of 6 contenders with a 63.7% chance to reach the CFP -- well above New Mexico at 26.8%. The FPI gives Boise State at least a 76% chance to win each of its remaining games (home against Oregon State and San Diego State).
Still in the mix: New Mexico. The 8-1 Lobos' only loss was a 14-6 defeat Sept. 19 at Oklahoma. New Mexico's biggest problem isn't the loss, it is its No. 109-ranked strength of schedule and No. 103-ranked remaining schedule. Boise State's close loss at Oregon is also probably viewed as a better road defeat in the committee meeting room than New Mexico's close loss at Oklahoma, though they are very comparable.
Bracket
Based on ESPN's top-12 projection after Week 10, the seeding would be:
First-round byes
No. 1 Georgia (SEC champ)
No. 2 Utah (Big 12 champ)
No. 3 Alabama
No. 4 Texas
First-round games
On campus, Dec. 18 and 19
No. 12 Boise State (highest Group of 6) at No. 5 Notre Dame
No. 11 Texas Tech at No. 6 Miami (ACC champ)
No. 10 Kentucky at No. 7 Indiana (Big Ten champ)
No. 9 Tennessee at No. 8 UCLA
Quarterfinal games
Vrbo Fiesta Bowl on Dec. 30, and Chick-fil-A Peach Bowl, Goodyear Cotton Bowl Classic and Rose Bowl Game presented by Prudential on Jan. 1.
No. 12 Boise State/No. 5 Notre Dame winner vs. No. 4 Texas
No. 11 Texas Tech/No. 6 Miami winner vs. No. 3 Alabama
No. 10 Kentucky/No. 7 Indiana winner vs. No. 2 Utah
No. 9 Tennessee/No. 8 UCLA winner vs. No. 1 Georgia