The stars above New Jersey seemed aligned for Tom Kean Jr.

The Republican congressman had a war chest of more than $2.4m in February, an endorsement from Donald Trump and a district whose lines were redrawn in 2022 to benefit his party. He was an established political figure with widespread name recognition, thanks to his father’s stint as a well-regarded governor of New Jersey.

Then he disappeared.

Kean, 58, was not seen in Congress, or public, for more than three months and missed 100 votes without explanation – as Trump’s war on Iran piled pressure on the US economy, and the president threatened fresh tariffs on global imports.

Democrats meanwhile selected a moderate, Rebecca Bennett, to challenge Kean for his seat. Kean, who resurfaced at the end of June, is now in the midst of a tight race in one of the wealthiest districts in the nation.

In an ominous sign for Republicans, the closely watched Cook Political Report moved New Jersey’s seventh congressional district from “toss-up” to “lean Democrat” last month.

Most Republicans fighting for re-election while aligned with Trump are grappling with the impact of the president’s growing unpopularity. His war with Iran has driven the cost of fuel and groceries up, angering the voters who were promised lower prices under his administration.

But Kean has also endured months of discourse – and national headlines – over his prolonged absence, and reserved public appearances. When he returned at the end of June, the congressman said he had been hospitalized for depression.

“I think mental health issues aside, which are serious ... I don’t think he handled the issue very well,” said Albie, a New Jersey voter attending a No Kings protest in New Providence last weekend.

Mike Johnson, the Republican speaker of the House of Representatives, appeared to agree in August. “You know, if it were me, I would have done it a little sooner,” he told the New York Times of Kean’s reluctance to explain his absence.

Johnson, like many, is sympathetic to Kean’s health condition, which affects millions of Americans.

Since his return, Kean has been accused of avoiding the media spotlight. His campaign denied a New York Times reporter entry to an event attended by other media outlets in August; he refused to take questions from reporters after participating in a livestreamed debate against Bennett, his Democratic opponent.

The Guardian sent two emails to Kean’s campaign requesting an interview, or the opportunity to attend a campaign event. They went unanswered.

Harrison Neely, Kean’s campaign manager, did not respond to an initial text message containing the same requests earlier this week. He did, however, respond to a second message asking for a brief interview on Thursday.

“I think the narrative that congressman Kean doesn’t engage with the press is simply false,” said Neely, adding that the campaign prefers to communicate with voters directly. (On Thursday, New York Magazine published an article saying its multiple requests for an interview went ignored.)

Kean does give interviews, mostly to local reporters, and the campaign has invited local outlets to cover events. Neely said the campaign most recently challenged Bennett to a debate on WRNJ, a local radio station. However, the Bennett campaign declined to participate.

“So you know, I think it’s basically fair to say that congressman Kean does more local press engagements than any sitting member of the New Jersey delegation,” Neely said.

Bennett, a political newcomer, is cautiously optimistic that she can flip a battleground district in New Jersey for the Democrats in next month’s midterm.

“We’re going to do everything we can for the next 16 days to flip the seat, but we are feeling good about where we are,” Bennett told reporters after a meet-and-greet with voters in Basking Ridge last Sunday. “We’re seeing a ton of momentum and enthusiasm on the ground.”

Bennett, 39, is a former Navy helicopter pilot and aircraft commander. She’s also a former executive at an online healthcare company.

Democrats in the state are hopeful her moderate stance can appeal to the district’s voters, especially because many 2024 Trump voters have expressed discontent with the economy.

Bennett said she often hears “deeply frustrated” voters bring up Kean’s willingness to let Trump unleash his agenda, such as voting for the One Big Beautiful Bill Act, continuing the war with Iran or not doing enough to stop Trump from halting funding for the Gateway Hudson Tunnel Project between New Jersey and New York.

Mostly, she focuses her messaging on promoting affordability.

“I understand the challenges that we’re facing because my family is dealing with them too,” said Bennett. “My oldest kid’s in public school. My youngest is in daycare. And so when we talk about the cost-of-living crisis we’re dealing with, this is not abstract talking points on a page – this is my life.”

But nothing is certain in New Jersey’s seventh congressional district, which has seesawed between Republican and Democratic representatives since 2018. The district voted for Trump by a slim majority in 2024, and also elected Mikie Sherrill – its Democratic governor – in 2025.

The Congressional Leadership Fund – the Super Pac dedicated to helping House Republicans – and the Safety and Affordability Pac, affiliated with Trump, have reportedly canceled remaining funding for Kean’s district.

When asked about the pulled funding by the New Jersey Globe, Kean dismissed concerns, pointing to $6.2m in funding from the National Republican Congressional Committee.

Neely also expressed confidence. “If you take a step back and look at the facts, Republicans have outspent Democrats in this district to this point,” he said. “Our campaign is fully funded down the home stretch, and will be matching the Bennett campaign dollar for dollar on the airwaves.”

As Kean’s campaign pushed back against the claim he doesn’t engage with the media, before reaching Neely by phone this week, the Guardian spent time driving around the district one weekend earlier this month.

There appeared to be something in the air: a lack of Tom Kean Jr lawn signs in the Trump-friendly Bedminster area, and an autumnal breeze that appeared more present than his campaign.