Key events

There are a few key battles to look out for today.

Hard to nit start with the tussle of the tens. Damian McKenzie provides spark and thrust while Fin Russell brings the razzle dazzle. Whoever plays on the front foot will likely swing the contest.

Then there’s the muddle in midfield. Scotland have one of the best centre pairs in the game in Huw Jones and Sione Tuipulotu. Not that the New Zealand duo of Quinn Tupaea and Jordie Barrett are slouches. Honestly, it’s hard to split them.

Finally, and for me, tellingly, we come to the benches. This has been Scotland’s Achilles heel for some time, and perhaps the reason why they’ve not been able to mix it with the truly elite.

Blair Kinghorn brings some expereince and quality, but so does Rieko Ioene. Can the forwards on the wood for the home team match the power that’s coming from the visitors’ bench? The entire match could rest on that answer.

I’ve used the All Blacks throughout, but they’ll actually in white today.

Their kit will also feature a poppy for Armistice Day.

They’ll sport some black in the form of an armband following the sad passing of their head of security, Logan Cadwaller, in Edinburgh earlier this week.

Here are some randomly plucked stats and facts that either mean a lot or are nothing but guff:

  • 33 Tests: NZ 31 wins, two draws.

  • Draws: 0–0 (1964); 25–25 (1983).

  • Previous game: Scotland 17–25 NZ in 2025.

  • Scotland levelled at 17–17 before a late McKenzie try.

  • Last four margins: 8, 5, 8, 8 points.

  • Scotland: 10 Glasgow starters.

  • Russell winning cap 96; Beauden Barrett cap 148.

  • Will Jordan: six tries in three Nations Championship games.

  • NZ won all three July Nations Championship games.

  • Both teams second in their hemisphere standings entering round four.

  • Rennie replaced Townsend as Glasgow coach in 2017.

  • Former Scotland captain Mike Blair now coaches the All Blacks attack.

  • New Zealand wearing white, with black armbands.

  • Scotland still seeking their first-ever victory over NZ.

Dave Rennie makes just two changes to the All Blacks side that beat Australia 43-21 in Sydney last month. Ethan de Groot returns at loosehead, while Jordie Barrett is restored to midfield alongside Quinn Tupaea. Damian McKenzie continues at fly-half with Cam Roigard at scrum-half, while Beauden Barrett starts at full-back and the prolific Will Jordan remains on the wing.

Codie Taylor captains the side from hooker, with Scott Barrett and Fabian Holland in the second row. The back row of Tupou Vaa’i, Peter Lakai and Wallace Sititi remains intact. Jordan, who scored six tries in the opening three rounds of the Nations Championship, will again be a major attacking threat.

Asafo Aumua, Christian Lio-Willie and Anton Segner come onto the bench, alongside Rieko Ioane and Timoci Tavatavanawai. Rennie knows Scottish rugby well, having succeeded Gregor Townsend at Glasgow Warriors in 2017. Former Scotland captain Mike Blair is also part of his coaching staff.

New Zealand: Beauden Barrett; Will Jordan, Quinn Tupaea, Jordie Barrett, Josh Moorby, Damian McKenzie, Cam Roigard; Ethan de Groot, Codie Taylor (capt), Fletcher Newell, Scott Barrett, Fabian Holland, Tupou Vaa’i, Peter Lakai, Wallace Sititi.

Replacement: Asafo Aumua, George Bower, Pasilio Tosi, Christian Lio-Willie, Anton Segner, Cortez Ratima, Timoci Tavatavanawai, Rieko Ioane.

Gregor Townsend has leaned heavily on familiarity, selecting 10 Glasgow Warriors players in his starting XV and 13 in the matchday squad. Captain Sione Tuipulotu is reunited with Huw Jones in midfield, while Finn Russell, winning his 96th cap, partners Ben White at half-back for the seventh time this year. Kyle Rowe starts at full-back ahead of Blair Kinghorn, who is among the replacements, with Kyle Steyn and Jamie Dobie completing an all-Glasgow back three.

Up front, Rory Sutherland gets the nod at loosehead ahead of Pierre Schoeman, with Ewan Ashman returning at hooker. Ashman, Scotland’s leading try-scoring forward, scored against the All Blacks in last year’s 25-17 defeat. Zander Fagerson completes the front row, while Glasgow teammates Gregor Brown and Scott Cummings form the second row. The back row combines Matt Fagerson, Rory Darge and Jack Dempsey, providing a mixture of carrying power and breakdown expertise.

Scotland: Kyle Rowe; Kyle Steyn, Huw Jones, Sione Tuipulotu (capt), Jamie Dobie; Finn Russell, Ben White; Rory Sutherland, Ewan Ashman, Zander Fagerson, Gregor Brown, Scott Cummings, Matt Fagerson, Rory Darge, Jack Dempsey.

Replacements: Gregor Hiddleston, Pierre Schoeman, Will Hurd, Max Williamson, Josh Bayliss, George Horne, Tom Jordan, Blair Kinghorn.

Could today be the day?

Across 33 previous meetings, Scotland have never beaten the New Zealand All Blacks. There have neem two draws – 0-0 in 1964 and 25-25 in 1983 – both at Murrayfield. But that’s not the same as winning, and how sweet that single malt will taste if the lads get the job done today.

Their previous four matches have given them reason to be optimistic, but Scotland lost by eight points in each of them. It seems that no matter how hard the Scots try, they just can’t get within arm’s reach of the All Blacks.

As for their form coming into this one, New Zealand retained the Bledisloe Cup with another spanking of the Wallabies but lost Rugby’s Greatest Rivalry to South Africa, but Scotland haven’t played since July’s slugfest victory, by a score of 47-28, over Argentina in Cordoba.

Does any of the above matter? Does form or history count for much when 15 men representing their country take on another 15 men doing the same thing?

We’ll find out soon enough.

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