One of the biggest questions heading into this season was if the SEC could snap the Big Ten's streak of three national titles, and with the SEC earning three of the top four spots this week, it appears there's no shortage of options to try.
And Ole Miss is now one of them.
With Saturday's statement win against LSU, the Rebels' College Football Playoff hopes have skyrocketed, but how far has LSU dropped? (Hint: not as far as Texas A&M after its loss to Kentucky).
While Miami and Notre Dame remain in a tight race, and BYU and Texas Tech are still carrying the Big 12 banner, they're all still looking up at the SEC. Based on historical knowledge and an understanding of the criteria and protocol, here's a look at what the selection committee might do if the rankings were today.
Projecting the top 12
1. Texas Longhorns (3-0)
Why they could be here: Committee members could still view the Longhorns' Week 2 win against Ohio State as the best win in the country. It helped Texas that Ohio State didn't come out flat against Kent State on Saturday and showed no signs of a letdown in a 59-3 win. The same could be said for Texas in its win against UTSA. Texas ranks among the best in the country in ESPN's Strength of Record metric, and in total efficiency as well, so it's not only passing the eye test, it's also backing it up statistically.
Why they could be lower: Some selection committee members could argue that the Ole Miss win against LSU was bigger, and that the Rebels' overall résumé is stronger because of the win against Louisville. It helped Ole Miss that Louisville beat a ranked SMU team Saturday.
Need to know: If Ohio State goes on to win the Big Ten, which it is currently projected to do according to ESPN Analytics, the Longhorns' Week 2 win could wind up being the best in the country on Selection Day.
Toughest remaining game: Nov. 14 at LSU. It's one of the most daunting venues in the sport, and ESPN's FPI still gives Texas a 65.5% chance to win. While the regular-season finale against Texas A&M won't be easy, the Aggies showed Saturday they have several issues to fix if they're going to be a factor in the SEC race.
2. Ole Miss Rebels (3-0)
Why they could be here: Not only do the Rebels have one of the best résumés in the country, they also might have the best quarterback. The selection committee held Chambliss in high regard last year, and will do it again after he accounted for three touchdowns (two passing, one rushing) against LSU. The season-opening win against Louisville looks even better after the Cardinals beat a ranked SMU team Saturday.
Why they could be higher: Yes, the Rebels have a case for No. 1 because two wins against ranked opponents -- Louisville and LSU -- is something no other team in the country can currently claim. The win against Louisville was also a neutral-site game.
Need to know: Ole Miss has the third-toughest remaining schedule in the country, according to ESPN Research. The win against LSU was critical for playoff and SEC implications, but it was also vital to give the Rebels some breathing room down the stretch. They have back-to-back road games against Florida and Vandy looming, plus still have to face Texas and Georgia.
Toughest remaining game: Oct. 24 at Texas. It will be the Rebels' third road trip in five weeks. (They have a bye week between Florida and Vandy.)
3. Ohio State Buckeyes (2-1)
Why they could be here: The Buckeyes would likely be the committee's highest-ranked one-loss team because the group wouldn't penalize them too much for one bad quarter on the road against their No. 1 team. Ohio State also didn't let Texas beat it twice by coming out flat on Saturday against Kent State. The Buckeyes showed no signs of a letdown and have avoided anything close to an upset so far. It's also still one of the nation's most talented teams, and the committee loves star power. On Saturday, Heisman hopeful receiver Jeremiah Smith broke the school's career receiving yardage record.
Why they could be lower: Ohio State's two wins have come against unranked Mid-American Conference teams Ball State and Kent State. While they have outscored those teams 115-3, the committee would consider that the defenses for Ball State and Kent State were among the worst in college football in points allowed per game.
Need to know: Ohio State will play three of its four October games on the road, and all of them should be against ranked opponents (Iowa, Indiana and USC). It's perfect timing to impress the committee, which will release its first of six rankings on Nov. 3, the Tuesday after Ohio State's game at USC.
Toughest remaining game: Oct. 17 at Indiana. Ohio State could easily be a two-loss team before the committee meets in November, and the trip to Bloomington will be critical in determining that. If the Buckeyes lose to the defending national champs, they'll be in must-win mode at USC but have a well-timed bye week to prepare for the Trojans.
4. Georgia Bulldogs (3-0)
Why they could be here: As well as Georgia has played, the Bulldogs have played one of the worst schedules in the country to this point. That will obviously change as Georgia gets deeper into SEC play, but the committee does not look ahead. A dominant win against a beleaguered Arkansas team under a first-year head coach won't sway them much, even if it is an SEC road win. Still, the group likes complete teams, and Georgia has been one of the most efficient in the country through three weeks.
Why they could be higher: The eye test is everything with these guys. They're clearly one of the best teams in the country and capable of competing for the national title. This was the first time quarterback Gunner Stockton even played the entire game because the Bulldogs have had such lopsided wins against unranked, overmatched opponents. Georgia's defense held Arkansas to just 17 rushing yards on Saturday.
Need to know: What matters most is where the committee ranks an opponent heading into Selection Day, so if Georgia beats Oklahoma and ultimately helps knock the Sooners out of the committee's top 25, it will impact their résumé. It won't matter, though, if Georgia locks up a bid with the SEC title.
Toughest remaining game: Oct. 10 at Alabama. ESPN's FPI gives Georgia at least a 50% chance to win each of its remaining games, but this one is the closest to a coin-toss at 53.6%.
5. Miami Hurricanes (3-0)
Why they could be here: The committee would like that the Canes have won two of three games on the road, including 2,500 miles away at Stanford in the season opener. They were finally tested, though, on Friday at Wake Forest. The offense was slowed for the first time all season, but the defense came through. The committee members are going hold quarterback Darian Mensah in high regard, and on Friday he completed his first 24 passes to set an ACC record for consecutive completions.
Why they could be lower: Miami hasn't played a ranked opponent yet.
Need to know: The committee considers injuries to key players as part of its evaluations, and the Canes are monitoring star receiver Malachi Toney, who limped off the field against Wake Forest, and running back Mark Fletcher Jr. was also banged up. "They're going to be evaluated," Cristobal said after the game. "We'll find out exactly where they're at once we get back and get them with the docs and assess them more." Miami should be a heavy favorite in its upcoming home game against Central Michigan before heading to Clemson on Oct. 3.
Toughest remaining game: Nov. 7 at Notre Dame. The two national title contenders should both be unbeaten when they meet in South Bend for a game the committee will be watching closely.
6. Notre Dame Fighting Irish (3-0)
Why they could be here: The Irish are 2-0 against the Big Ten, which is more than the Big Ten's top contenders can claim to this point. While wins against unranked Wisconsin and Michigan State don't exactly make a statement, they'd still likely be considered respectable in the committee meeting room as higher value opponents than some other contenders have faced. Notre Dame hasn't played an FCS opponent like some teams have. The committee would also consider the challenge of playing Wisconsin at Lambeau Field, but recognize Notre Dame's overall stats are partially inflated from a 52-0 win against Rice.
Why they could be higher: Notre Dame's defense has been elite, and the offense also ranks in the top 10 in efficiency.
Need to know: Notre Dame's remaining schedule is No. 50 in the country, according to ESPN Analytics, but the committee will highly value wins against BYU and Miami if the Irish can go 2-0 against those teams. The head-to-head tiebreakers would also be important to the seeding process on Selection Day,
Toughest remaining game: Nov. 7 vs. Miami. Cut and paste from last week. This isn't going to change until that game is played, as it will be one of the most impactful CFP games of the season.
7. Alabama Crimson Tide (3-0)
Why they could be here: Alabama flirted with disaster against Florida State, but after the Noles' second delayed game of the season and another break in the game because of lightning, the Tide ultimately pulled away and left no doubt it was the better team. Alabama's Week 2 win at Kentucky looks even better this week after the Wildcats earned a statement road win on Saturday against Texas A&M. That's the only team Alabama has beaten, though, with a winning record.
Why they could be higher: Alabama has scored at least 45 points in all three of its games, and quarterback Keelon Russell continues to show improvement each week. He completed 76.7% of his passes against the Noles with three touchdowns and no interceptions.
Need to know: With wins against two Power 4 opponents, Alabama has an edge over some contenders that haven't played as difficult of a schedule, but the Tide's true place in the playoff pecking order won't be revealed until mid-October. It starts with the home game against Georgia followed by a road trip to Tennessee and the home game against Texas A&M. If Alabama can survive that stretch going into the first CFP ranking, it will be on solid ground with a manageable November schedule.
Toughest remaining game: Oct. 10 vs. Georgia. The Tide will have homefield advantage against its first ranked opponent of the season, but ESPN's FPI gives Georgia a 53.6% chance to win.
8. LSU Tigers (2-1)
Why they could be here: The selection committee will consider the intangibles of playing on the road in Kiffin's return to Oxford, the hostile environment, and the fact that LSU had a chance to tie the game in the final minute. It helped LSU a little bit that Clemson found a way to earn a comeback win against UNC and avoid more embarrassment, but the turnover from quarterback Sam Leavitt against Ole Miss was his fourth in two games.
Why they could be lower: Some committee members could vote the Hoosiers higher because they haven't lost and continue to look dominant. There are also still legitimate questions about the true value of a win against Clemson.
Need to know: The committee will honor the head-to-head result as long as the records remain comparable, but Ole Miss has one of the most difficult remaining schedules in the country. If the Rebels stumble multiple times and LSU rebounds to have fewer losses, Saturday's result might not be the final determination in the room.
Toughest remaining game: Nov. 14 vs. Texas. The Nov. 7 game against Alabama is looking more difficult each week as the Tide improves, but if LSU can't win that one, the following week against Texas will be even more critical.
9. Indiana Hoosiers (3-0)
Why they could be here: The Hoosiers entered Week 3 with the No. 109 strength of schedule in the country, and a win against 0-3 Western Kentucky isn't going to change that much. The committee notes wins against FCS teams like Howard, and Indiana still doesn't have a win against a Power 4 or ranked opponent. Indiana got off to a slow start against the Hilltoppers with a scoreless first quarter, but eventually pulled away as expected for another lopsided win.
Why they could be higher: Regardless of who they've played, the Hoosiers have put together complete performances in dominant fashion, which is what the committee valued last season. Quarterback Josh Hoover has played well, Indiana is among the nation's leaders in total efficiency and North Texas is the only team that has scored on the IU defense.
Need to know: A Big Ten title game that features Indiana and Ohio State for the second straight season is the most likely matchup, according to ESPN Analytics. The Big Ten champ will be a lock for the CFP, but the runner-up could be in trouble if it loses twice to the same team -- especially if it's by double digits. This happened to BYU last year after losing twice to Big 12 champion Texas Tech.
Toughest remaining game: Oct. 17 vs. Ohio State. The Hoosiers get the Buckeyes at home, but ESPN's FPI gives Ohio State a 59.4% chance to win. It's the only game on the schedule that Indiana isn't projected to win.
10. BYU Cougars (3-0)
Why they could be here: The Cougars showed no signs of an upset at Colorado State on Saturday, winning their first road game of the season. Statistically, BYU has been better than Texas Tech in both offensive and defensive efficiency, and the Cougars have had a better scoring defense while averaging more points per game. BYU quarterback Bear Bachmeier has been more accurate than Texas Tech's Will Hammond and has a higher QBR. BYU's defense has been measurably better than USC's to this point.
Why they could be lower: The selection committee would likely regard Texas Tech's win against Houston as better than BYU's win against Arizona.
Need to know: BYU and Texas Tech don't play each other during the regular season, but they are still the most likely matchup in the Big 12 title game, according to ESPN Analytics. If BYU loses to Notre Dame, though, and it doesn't win the Big 12, it could have a difficult time earning a bid as a two-loss Big 12 runner-up because its lone win against a ranked opponent in that scenario might be against Utah.
Toughest remaining game: Oct. 17 vs. Notre Dame. ESPN's FPI gives the Irish a 75.7% chance to win.
11. USC Trojans (4-0)
Why they could be here: USC earned its first road win and first Big Ten win of the season at 0-3 Rutgers, which put up far more of a fight than most probably expected. The Trojans' defense has now allowed at least 30 points in three of four games, and has yet to face a ranked opponent. The selection committee does consider factors like a five-hour flight across roughly 2,700 miles into Eastern time zone, and that USC never trailed. USC's offense under quarterback Jayden Maiava has flourished, and the passing game has been complemented by King Miller and a reliable running game.
Why they could be lower: Committee members will question the USC defense, which gave up five plays of at least 20 yards against Rutgers, and has allowed its opponents to score on 10 of 13 trips inside the red zone. USC made a splash with the hire of former TCU coach Gary Patterson as its defensive coordinator, but if the Trojans don't fix some issues quickly, it's going to be a struggle against the Big Ten's better offenses. And historically, Lincoln Riley's teams have made the playoff with great offenses and suspect defenses -- but have also been knocked out early without the total package.
Need to know: The Trojans are about to enter a season-defining stretch, with three straight games against Oregon, Washington and at Penn State -- and that's not even the most difficult part of their schedule. But the next three weeks will reveal to the committee how seriously they should take USC as a CFP contender.
Toughest remaining game: Oct. 10 at Penn State. This will be Penn State's annual "White Out" game, and USC's first trip to Happy Valley since 1994. It's another cross-country trip for the Trojans, and Penn State is 11-7 when the full stadium wears white.
12. Texas Tech Red Raiders (3-0)
Why they could be here: The Red Raiders earned their first Big 12 win against a top-25 Houston team, which helps separate them from bubble teams like Penn State and Tennessee. It was a gritty, down-to-the-wire win after Houston led 17-14 before the half and quarterback Conner Weigman came up short on a two-point conversion in the final minute. It was the first signature win of the season for Texas Tech after also beating Oregon State and FCS Abilene Christian.
Why they could be lower: There's not a lot of separation yet, particularly in this area of undefeated teams the committee would consider. Penn State, Utah and Tennessee are all close, and Louisville has a win against a ranked SMU team and a close loss to Ole Miss. All of those teams have also been statistically better in total efficiency.
Need to know: If the playoff were today, the Red Raiders would be bumped out as the Big 12 runner-up to make room for the committee's highest-ranked Group of 6 team. No. 9 BYU is the projected Big 12 champ right now.
Toughest remaining game: Nov. 21 at Baylor. The Bears had a tough 17-16 season-opening loss to Auburn, and haven't been tested much since. ESPN's FPI projects Texas Tech will win each of its remaining games, but the trip to Baylor is one of the lower percentages at 65.3%.
Bracket
Based on the rankings above, the seeding would be:
First-round byes
No. 1 Texas (SEC champ)
No. 2 Ole Miss
No. 3 Ohio State (Big Ten champ)
No. 4 Georgia
First-round games
On campus, Dec. 18 and 19
No. 12 Highest Group of 6 at No. 5 Miami (ACC champ)
No. 11 USC at No. 6 Notre Dame
No. 10 BYU (Big 12 champ) at No. 7 Alabama
No. 9 Indiana at No. 8 LSU
Quarterfinal games
Vrbo Fiesta Bowl on Dec. 30, Chick-fil-A Peach Bowl, Goodyear Cotton Bowl Classic and Rose Bowl Game presented by Prudential on Jan. 1.
No. 12 Highest Group of 6/No. 5 Miami winner vs. No. 4 Georgia
No. 11 USC/No. 6 Notre Dame winner vs. No. 3 Ohio State
No. 10 BYU/No. 7 Alabama winner vs. No. 2 Ole Miss
No. 9 Indiana/No. 8 LSU winner vs. No. 1 Texas