Nottingham ForestâÂÂs historic goal drought at home is part of longstanding problem
Nottingham Forest and Schalke are yet to score at home in 2026-27. The former are one of only five teams in the history of the English top flight to have failed to score in their first four home league matches. Three of the preceding four also drew a blank in game five, which will be deflating news for Oliver Glasner with Manchester City heading to the City Ground on Saturday looking for a win after consecutive league defeats. ForestâÂÂs expected goals total implies they should have scored but a flaw in their data shows a reason why.
They also failed to find the net in a Carabao Cup home game with Leeds, meaning they have amassed 70 shots in all competitions without giving the home fans a goal to celebrate. As extreme as this situation has become, Forest scored only two goals more than the lowest home scorers in the Premier League last season (Burnley), drawing a blank on nine occasions. This is a longstanding issue.
Read Andrew BeasleyâÂÂs full analysis of ForestâÂÂs woes in front of goal:
Nottingham Forest XI: Sels, Munoz, Jair, Milenkovic, Murillo, Williams, Yates, Schlager, Gibbs-White, McAtee, Delap.
Subs: Victor, Diomande, Netz, Sangare, Hudson Odoi, Ndoye, Wood, Jesus, Kalimuendo.
Manchester City XI: Donnarumma, Khusanov, Dias (C), Guéhi, Gvardiol, Anderson, Fernández, Ndiaye, Cherki, Doku, Haaland.
Subs: Rulli, KovaciÃÂ, Reis, Nunes, Bouaddi, OâÂÂReilly, Allan, Foden, Lewis.
With two defeats in a row for Manchester City in the Premier League, buffered slightly by a midweek Champions League win in Leipzig, a trip to the City Ground where Nottingham Forest are yet to score this season seems quite welcoming.
Oliver Glasner is getting increasingly spikey. He said ahead of this game that the club are not running a âÂÂspa and wellness hotelâÂÂ. Losing when they should have won against GlasnerâÂÂs former club Crystal Palace did not help the mood and to some it is a surprise the German is still in a job when you consider the lack of patience shown to some of his predecessors.
Defensively, Forest are relatively secure. TheyâÂÂve only conceded two goals less than fifth-place Everton, but their plight comes more from the failures of their forward line. Liam Delap, the ã45m summer investment, has not generated decent returns and Morgan Gibbs-WhiteâÂÂs tenacious invention is going to waste. Chris Wood is seen only in cameos. Very little seems to be working.
Zooming out, this is now CityâÂÂs fourth league game since the guilty verdict came down and the spectacle doesnâÂÂt get any less strange. ItâÂÂs football happening before your eyes, often to quite a high standard, but is it real? Does it count? The holding pattern will continue until we get a resolution on the punishment. This stasis also serves to make much analysis of CityâÂÂs merits as a football team moot. The troubling form of Gianluigi Donnarumma and Marc Guéhi, the inconsistency of Rayan Cherki, the relentlessness of Erling Haaland, itâÂÂs all devoid of meaning.
Perhaps itâÂÂs best to watch each game on its individual merits and not try to extrapolate broad conclusions. In that case, this represents a chance for Forest to break their home duck against a wounded City side. Glasner is good at setting up teams to frustrate and break, tactics that will be helpful in this one. Should be a good watch, but let me know your thoughts via the link at the top of the page.
Kick-off: 5.30pm GMT