The Republican congressman Mike Lawler is in danger of losing his seat next week. Again.

In the last two elections, Lawler, 40, has defeated Democratic opponents in New York’s 17th congressional district – one of the closest-run battlegrounds in this year’s midterms – with moderate policies.

But with polls pointing to a tight race, and Donald Trump’s declining approval ratings piling pressure on Republicans nationwide, Lawler is not banking on re-election.

“Everybody who thinks they know what’s going to happen in November I think is fooling themselves,” the congressman told the Associated Press recently. “This is not like any normal midterm.”

Lawler’s tough-on-crime and affordability messaging helped him defeat a powerful Democrat in 2022 and flip the district, an area in the lower Hudson valley that leans more favorably for Democrats than Republicans, for the first time since the mid-1980s.

His reputation as a Republican willing to work across the aisle earned him key labor unions’ support in 2024 and convinced voters to keep him in office. Even Joe Biden, the former Democratic president, praised Lawler in 2023 for being “the kind of Republican I was used to dealing with” and “not one of these Maga Republicans”.

“What does it take for a Republican to win in NY-17?” an unnamed former Republican party leader was quoted asking in City & State New York, a local news outlet, in October. “You need to be Mike Lawler.”

Lawler is facing a new set of challenges this time around, as sustained frustration over the cost of living, tied to the impact of Trump’s war with Iran, looms large.

Lawler voted against a resolution that aimed to rein in Trump’s military action in Iran three times. He also supported Trump’s One Big Beautiful Bill Act, which was expected to cause half a million New Yorkers to lose health insurance and cut funding for a hospital in the 17th district.

He defended Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) officers’ actions after being confronted by angry constituents during a town hall in February and highlighted his working relationship with Trump while rallying with the US president in Rockland county in May.

Cait Conley, Lawler’s Democratic opponent, has pointed to the Republican lawmaker’s proximity to Trump throughout her campaign, hoping to capitalize on voters disgruntled with the US president.

“What we have seen under this administration – enabled by my opponent, Mike Lawler, who continues to vote with Donald Trump on every issue that matters 100% of the time – is he has made lives for Hudson valley families harder, not better,” Conley told voters during a debate with Lawler earlier this month.

“You deserve a patriot, not a puppet,” she added.

Lawler was already facing a tough contest. The Cook Political Report moved New York’s 17th congressional district from “lean Republican” to “toss-up” in January. While it leans +1 toward Democrats, polling has been unable to paint a clear picture.

In an Emerson College Polling/PIX 11 survey of 400 likely voters, 48% said they’d vote for Conley while 46% said they’d vote for Lawler. But another 7% were undecided. A McLaughlin & Associates poll, sponsored by Republicans, put Lawler at 50% and Conley at 47%.

Both parties have poured millions of dollars into the race.

Conley, a veteran and former national security official, consistently posts online reminding people that Lawler is allied with Trump.

Lawler has broken with the president on some issues. Last year, he fought Trump to raise the cap for state and local tax (Salt) deductions. He urged the White House to extend temporary protected status for Haitian immigrants; New York’s 17th district is home to a large population of Haitian immigrants. Most recently, he publicly opposed Trump’s diesel deal with Russia, stating that “not one penny” should go to Vladimir Putin.

“When I agree with the president, I’m willing to say it,” Lawler told reporters after a campaign event earlier this year. “And when I disagree with him, I’m willing to say it.”

Lawler has tried to toe the line between challenging Trump on certain policies while remaining largely supportive of the US president’s agenda. But his real strength as a candidate in previous elections was connecting with his constituents, who are also his lifelong neighbors, consistently hosting in-person town halls – even when they turn contentious.

Lawler knows his constituents well. In a district with a large population of Orthodox Jewish people, he has toured kosher shopping centers and introduced legislation to fight antisemitism. “I’ve seen Lawler more times than I’ve seen my rabbi,” Yossi Gestetner, a registered Democrat in the district, told the New York Times in 2024.

Such strategies worked for Lawler in 2022 and 2024. He’s seemingly leaning on it again this time around. On Monday, he took a page from Trump’s campaign book to work as a McDonald’s employee in Haverstraw for a few hours.

But should a blue wave sweep the country on Tuesday, Lawler’s district will be front and center. Whether his reputation is enough to convince voters to keep him in office remains to be seen.