Iran and US explore diplomacy amid rising threats of war

Tehran, Iran – Ongoing contacts through mediators have provided a potential diplomatic opening between Iran and the United States, even as both sides express readiness for renewed military escalation.

After two days of Qatari-mediated talks, Iranian authorities have signalled that a deal remains possible provided that their demands are tangibly implemented. At the same time, they have doubled down on a willingness to expand attacks or even launch preemptive strikes if they deem war is inevitable.

“We are prepared for all scenarios,” Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi told Al Jazeera on Saturday. “We have upgraded our weaponry, addressed our vulnerabilities, and tested new arms. Our forces are at the highest level of readiness.”

His comments came as US President Donald Trump said on Saturday the talks were going “fine” but added that Iranian authorities were not “reliable”.

The Republican leader, who ordered attacks alongside Israel against Iran on February 28, has repeatedly raised prospects of once more hitting the country’s civilian infrastructure. In recent weeks, he has suggested that an attack could potentially take place after the November 3 midterm elections in the US.

“We still have to take care of, I would say, one or two sites, but we can do that in 10 minutes,” Trump told reporters at a Halloween party at his Mar-a-Lago Club in Florida about further bombing Iran’s nuclear facilities.

Sequencing and timeline

The mediated talks in Tehran on Friday, and then in Qatar on Saturday, appear to have produced a new tangible result by shortening the period after which Iran’s proposal to partly reopen the Strait of Hormuz can be enforced.

Tehran had previously offered seven days, but that has now come down to two, Araghchi said in his interview with Al Jazeera.

Negar Mortazavi, a senior fellow with the Center for International Policy, said there are “indications” of US interest in a negotiated settlement, citing the continuing Qatar-mediated talks and US Vice President JD Vance’s recent outreach.

“However, Iran is seeking a series of concessions while the United States insists on progress on Iran’s nuclear programme before concessions are made,” she told Al Jazeera.

“Therefore the central difficulty is sequencing and leverage. Each side wants the other to act first.”

Araghchi’s two-day offer indicates some flexibility over sequencing that could also allow both sides to claim an initial diplomatic achievement without immediately resolving their fundamental disagreements, according to Hamidreza Azizi, a senior Iran analyst at the International Crisis Group.

“However, the military statements show the limits of this opening. Iran appears increasingly determined to prevent a repetition of previous scenarios in which negotiations or temporary ceasefires were followed by renewed military conflict,” he wrote on social media. “From Tehran’s perspective, the objective is to make another attack so costly and unpredictable that Washington would have to reconsider the option altogether.”

As the talks were ongoing on Saturday, the office of Iran’s Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei said he had a meeting earlier with top military commanders to demand “maximum deterrence” through preparedness for an immediate response “without geographical restriction” to any threat.

Targets would include “tangible and intangible” US and Israeli assets, Khamenei said. Iranian authorities have previously said if Iran’s civilian infrastructure is attacked again, seabed cables and infrastructure across the region could also become targets.

After Khamenei’s statement, commanders of the general staff of the armed forces, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps and the traditional army separately expressed readiness to launch missile, drone and other attacks in case of an escalation of conflict.

State media on Sunday also aired footage of missiles and drones being taken out of massive underground storage sites and deployed during the eight months of war so far.

The authorities also signalled that they expect more potential attacks from the US and Israel, including against Iran’s power grid.

Gholamreza Jalali, commander of the National Organization for Passive Defense, said during a speech on Sunday that they have identified 14 sectors most dependent on electricity that would need support if the war restarts, without naming any.

“Adopting preventive measures in the area of passive defence for the electricity grid is a fundamental principle that all authorities must follow up in their capacities,” he said, adding that officials were considering “network islanding” practices to create different segments that would not all be simultaneously affected by potential bombing.

‘Positive change in tone’

In and around the Strait of Hormuz, vessels continue to be attacked if they refuse to coordinate with the Persian Gulf Strait Authority, the entity set up by Iranian authorities to enforce control and sovereignty in the critical waterway.

At least four tankers were identified as being hit on Friday and Saturday, although not all attacks are reported by vessels and monitors. According to the United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations, a vessel carrying liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) was struck by three Iranian projectiles on Saturday about 40 nautical miles (74km) south of Iran’s Lavan Island, deep into the Gulf.

Transit in the strait and surrounding waterways will not return to normal unless the US takes steps towards Iran’s conditions, security chief Mohsen Rezaei told state television during an interview on Saturday night.

For the sequencing to work, he said Tehran wants the US to lift its naval blockade that has halted oil exports and the majority of Iran’s trade, which used to be facilitated through its southern ports. The US must also issue waivers for oil sanctions, unfreeze Iran’s assets abroad, stop fighting on all regional fronts, including Lebanon, and recognise a bilateral Iran-Oman arrangement for Hormuz.

Rezaei said he has yet to respond to a letter addressed to him by Vance, although he said the missive indicated a “change in tone” that he described as “positive”.

Mostafa Najafi, a Tehran-based political analyst said to be linked with Rezaei, said if the conditions are not met, the letter is likely to go unanswered and negotiations – including on Iran’s nuclear programme – will not enter a higher level.

“It is unclear how willing Washington is to accept these demands. It is clear that not recognising rights emphasised by Iran will lead to the failure of the negotiations,” he wrote on X.

The US has also doubled down on the effectiveness of its Operation Economic Outcast involving the blockade, sanctions and pressure on overland trade and aviation.

A report by the US Treasury to inform Trump’s decision-making, which was publicised by news outlet Axios, said no new oil had been loaded onto tankers at Iran’s terminals since August 25. It also showed overseas crude deliveries were down, while Iran’s year-on-year inflation neared 90 percent in September and the national currency continued to dwindle.

The report said Iran’s economy was “crippled” by the combined measures, but did not argue that it was close to collapsing.