Grain under fire: Russian, Ukrainian Black Sea attacks threaten food supply

Kyiv, Ukraine – Three black naval drones resembling oversized plastic toys struck a freighter sluggishly navigating the Black Sea off the coast of Bulgaria on October 28.

Aerial drones joined the attack, and explosions rocked the Liberian-flagged Contship Jet Monrovia, loaded with more than 400 terracotta-coloured containers. The vessel, travelling from the Israeli port of Haifa to Romania, listed and sank, but all 18 crew members were rescued, Bulgarian authorities said.

The daytime assault was filmed by crew members, other ships and photographed by a French surveillance plane.

The drones were Russian, Kyiv claimed, adding that the attack was designed to make the Black Sea unsafe for civilian ships, paralyse Ukraine’s exports of grain and further hobble its war-ravaged economy.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said that Kyiv’s forces conducted “no operations in this part of the sea, and this latest tragedy involving civilian vessels is another part of Russia’s effort to make the western Black Sea completely unfit for navigation.”

The European Union’s delegation to Kyiv said in August that Russia is “systematically strangling Ukraine’s ability to feed the world.”

It added that by targeting ports, shipping lanes, and agricultural infrastructure, Moscow is not just waging war on Ukraine, but also “weaponising hunger against millions in Africa, Asia, and the Middle East.”

And while Europe’s food security is not at stake, the EU is “fully committed to continue supporting Ukraine’s access to international markets,” Paula Ritter-Moschutz, a spokeswoman for Agriculture and Customs at the European Commission, told Al Jazeera.

“We are continuously assessing its implications for agriculture, global food security, and the economy,” she said. “We support the initiatives for a moratorium on Black Sea attacks.”

At least 30 sailors have been killed or gone missing in the recent surge of attacks, according to Bulgarian and Romanian authorities and maritime tracking services.

‘A shadow deal was breached by Ukraine’

Moscow’s alleged campaign follows Ukrainian strikes on Russian freighters and oil tankers in the Black Sea and the adjoining Sea of Azov amid attacks on oil refineries, military plants and warehouses.

Those strikes intensified in July, and Moscow’s suspected retaliatory attacks may have been prevented, observers say.

“A shadow deal [not to strike each other’s cargo ships] was breached by Ukraine in the summer,” Nikolay Mitrokhin, a researcher with Germany’s Bremen University who analyses the Russia-Ukraine war, told Al Jazeera.

Russian President Vladimir Putin “definitely liked the idea of completely ruining Ukrainian exports,” he said. “Putin did issue several warnings before systemic strikes on the Odesa group of ports began.”

“If the attacks on [Russian] tankers continue, we will consider taking retaliatory measures against ships from countries assisting Ukraine,” Putin said in December.

Russian farmers and grain exporters usually ship more than two-thirds of their harvests via the Black Sea. As a result of the lack of security, they are testing exporting grain through the Arctic port of Murmansk, though the distance between the farms and the buyers will significantly increase costs.

Wheat prices rise

Before Russia’s 2022 full-scale invasion, about a third of the world’s grain exports passed through the Black Sea, and Ukraine provided a tenth of global wheat exports and 15 percent of corn.

Ukraine’s customers include Middle East and North African nations.

Over the past 12 months, wheat prices rose by a fifth.

Chicago wheat futures, a global benchmark for the wheat market, have gone up from $5.03 per bushel (35 litres) in October 2025 to $6.03 in October this year.

The US-Israel war on Iran, global warming and a drought in South Africa have also contributed to the spike.

Constant Russian strikes by jet-powered drones, cruise and ballistic missiles brought operations in Ukraine’s largest maritime hub, Odesa, to a halt.

“Today, after the ports of Odesa are paralysed, there’s no way out. Hardly more than 50 percent of grain can be exported via land routes,” Viktor Honcharenko, president of the Association of Farmers and Private Land Owners of Ukraine, told Al Jazeera. “Lots of wheat remained on the fields, it’s not being harvested,” he said.

The consequences will have a domino effect on Ukraine’s entire economy.

“There will be penniless farmers, penniless medium-sized businesses, taxes will practically be not paid, the state budget won’t get any money, and jobs will be lost,” Honcharenko said.

The paralysis of maritime grain shipments will mostly affect small farmers because larger, industrial farms will be first to export their grains via railroads and on trucks, he said.

Up to 60 million tonnes of grain have been harvested in Ukraine this year, but only half can be shipped out of the country, according to Kyiv-based analyst Aleksey Kushch.

Ukraine’s overloaded railroads cannot get larger volumes out of the country, he said.

To make use of its grain surplus, Ukraine could develop domestic production of flour, starches, glues and paper-making additives. However the country had lost its opportunity to “start full-scale processing”, Kushch told Al Jazeera.

Ukraine could switch to producing legumes and oil crops that would be welcome in the EU, whose member states defend domestic wheat farmers, but are interested in producing vegetable oils and protein.

But that would significantly decrease Ukrainian farmers’ profits, and that is where Zelenskyy’s government should have stepped in to negotiate EU subsidies for growing chickpeas and soy, Kushch said.

“The price of the matter is one billion euros,” he added, referring to the estimated cost of subsidies.