After the dust settled on Tuesday night’s near-annihilation of the Republican party nationwide, a single red flag fluttered defiantly in Florida, now a last bastion of the Maga movement that has dominated politics in the US for a decade.

Voters in the Sunshine state bucked the national trend, just barely, to elect two close allies of Donald Trump into office: congressman Byron Donalds as its first Black governor, and Ashley Moody to the US Senate.

But it was a close call – both margins of victory under 3% – and the shockwaves created metaphorical cracks in the stucco of Mar-a-Lago, the president’s prized citadel by the sea, if not the walls themselves.

Only a generation ago, Florida was the ultimate swing state, but turned reliably red in recent years to become a stronghold of conservatism. From here, Trump plotted his remarkable political comeback from the wilderness of his 2020 defeat to Joe Biden, and the ashes of the January 6 riots.

As well as being Trump’s home, Florida is where Ron DeSantis, the outgoing right-wing governor, molded so many of the policies expanded nationwide by the president during his second administration.

Attacks on LGBTQ+ communities; an aggressive, taxpayer-funded immigration crackdown and assaults on diversity, equity and inclusion (DEI), especially in higher education, were all weaned in the Sunshine state, bolstered by DeSantis’s ultra-loyal legislature that acquiesced to his whims at every turn.

Now, Florida finds itself facing something of a political retrenchment, as Trump’s power wanes on the national stage, and Republicans in the state reflect on a near-disaster.

The narrow victories of Donalds and Moody were certainly something for them to celebrate, especially against the stunning backdrop of Democratic upsets in South Carolina, Texas, Ohio, and elsewhere.

But it’s hard to escape the feeling that even here, where the president will doubtless spend substantial chunks of time playing golf during the final two years of what is now a lame-duck presidency, Maga’s last stand will be much less potent.

Analysts say that being Republican flag bearers in a lonely new political era, in which rejuvenated Florida Democrats are unexpectedly snapping at their heels again, will bring an unfamiliar range of challenges and risks.

Trump loyalist Donalds, for example, will not enjoy the same fealty from the Republican-controlled legislature that the termed-out DeSantis did, potentially checking the advancement of his own ultra-conservative agenda and promise to build on his predecessor’s legacy. Democrats made a net gain of 15 house seats in the state to strip the party’s supermajority.

“It’s unlikely he’ll have the clout that DeSantis had in his prime,” said Aubrey Jewett, professor of political science at the University of Central Florida.

“DeSantis really was almost all-powerful, getting almost anything he wanted. I don’t think that’s going to be the case with Donalds. He has presented himself as super Maga, he was all about the Maga agenda. Now he’s in office he might not push it quite as much, if for no other reason than Trump himself is in a severely weakened position.”

One element of Florida’s political make-up that did not change this week, but which was engineered to, was the number of Republicans elected to the US House of Representatives. An aggressive mid-cycle gerrymandering by DeSantis failed to work, with Democrats capturing all four districts (out of Florida’s 28) that were redrawn to disadvantage them, and holding four others.

“In this election cycle at least, it was a wash, a failed effort by Republicans,” Jewett said. “Democrats were able to fight it to a standstill and avoid losses. In the next election the fight will continue.”

Florida’s Democratic leaders celebrated those successes. “Florida voters saw through the blatant power grab,” the state party said Wednesday in a post on X.

DeSantis, at a press conference the same day, characterized the nationwide Republican wipeout as “close to an extinction-level event”, and took credit for Florida “holding the line”.

Florida Democrats, he said, had reached a high-water mark. “The question is, if you couldn’t win in this year, what circumstances are going to create the opportunity for you to win statewide in Florida?” he said.

“Florida is the last main anchor standing. Everyone that was on that ballot can look at Florida and then compare it to the rest of the country and know that there was a reason why we were able to withstand the worst of circumstances here.”

Jewett agreed with some of DeSantis’s reasoning. “Florida is a red state, there’s no doubt about it, but there are different shades of red,” he said.

“It’s not Wyoming red, where their senator won by like 65%. But the counterargument would be that Republicans always win, and that’s kind of the narrative for some of the national Democrats: ‘How many times are we going to say to ourselves if we just invest a little more and do a little more, we could win.’ And it just doesn’t happen.”

It’s an observation that resonates strongly with Democrats in the state. Nikki Fried, chair of the Florida Democratic party, told a press conference on Wednesday: “[We] are looking at the results across the country and can only imagine what kind of day we would be having if we had sustained national support.”

Angie Nixon, the democratic socialist, former labor organizer and state representative who lost to Moody after running on a shoestring-budget, grassroots campaign, with no television advertisements, concurred.

“Imagine what would have happened if we had more investment early on,” she said in a post on X shortly after her narrow defeat was confirmed.

Nixon lost by 2.9% in a seat most recently won by Marco Rubio, the secretary of state, in the 2022 Senate election by more than 16%. Young voters, Hispanics and Black voters in particular came out in droves to support her, but she was massively disadvantaged in fundraising and spending, and financial support from national Democrats was too little, too late.

Nixon, however, said she is getting straight back to work.

“I’m proud of the race we ran. We helped drive turnout and broke the super majority in the state house and senate. 2028 is around the corner,” she said. “LFG! [let’s fucking go].”