The England and Wales Cricket Board (ECB) is forecasting losses of tens of millions of pounds next year despite hosting the Ashes, with county executives told last week that the deficit could be as large as £50m.

The anticipated shortfall, after posting a profit of £12.6m in 2025, is due to a combination of the cyclical nature of the governing body’s media revenues, which is largely determined by domestic opposition, and a recent decision by the International Cricket Council (ICC) to withhold a portion of the broadcast payments owed to members that it had been due to distribute in 2027.

The ECB had noted in its 2025 accounts published in May that it was expecting a “significant loss” in 2027 due to the absence of home matches against India, but that figure is now far higher than expected, which is causing concern among the counties.

Ten of the 18 first class counties recorded losses in their most recently published accounts, and the vast majority are reliant on ECB funding to ensure they remain going concerns.

ECB sources have privately acknowledged the scale of the projected losses, but expressed optimism that the eventual figure could be reduced to around £35m, as the amount to be withheld by the ICC has yet to be confirmed and there is still time to add extra commercial and event revenue given the 2027 accounting period runs until 31 January 2028.

The ECB is understood to be working with the ICC to mitigate the impact of the reduced distribution.

The ICC’s decision to withhold broadcast payments next year has come as a surprise and is due to concerns over a projected decline in the value of the world governing body’s next Indian TV deal, with its current contracts expiring next year.

The ICC would ordinarily give its 12 full members a larger back-weighted media payment in the final year of the broadcast cycle as it coincides with the men’s 50-over World Cup, its most lucrative event in the calendar, but it has opted to withhold a portion next year in anticipation of getting a lower broadcast deal in the next cycle to enable it to smooth the drop in payments to members in 2028.

Disney Star paid US$3bn (£2.2bn) for the ICC’s media rights in India between 2023 and 2027, but after a merger with Reliance Industries and Viacom18 in 2024 sought to exit the deal, creating the widespread expectation that it will offer far less in the next cycle as much of the competition has been removed from the market.

The ECB is also hugely reliant on money from Indian TV so has similar concerns about declining revenue, particularly as its current $250m (£185m) six-year rights deal with Sony Pictures expires in 2028, with the expectation that the next contract will be significantly smaller.

Sony’s payments to the ECB are also far higher in years when India tour England, with the £12.6m profit in the 2025 accounts underpinned by that summer’s thrilling five-Test series, and the eight white-ball matches played this summer projected to generate another profit in the ECB’s 2026 accounts. In contrast Channel 9’s deal for exclusive rights to broadcast Australia’s tours to England in 2027 and 2031 is worth only $27.5m (£20.2m) to the ECB.

As a result of this imbalance Ashes summers have always been less lucrative for the ECB despite creating more domestic interest, although the financial losses projected for 2027 are still surprising and buck recent trends.

The ECB recorded profits of £15m and £23m in the years of Australia’s most recent tours, in 2019 and 2023 respectively, and is expecting record ticket sales next summer, although it only received about 30% of gate receipts with the rest kept by the host venues.

Beyond the India issue the ECB is overly reliant on media rights income generally, with about 75% of its £310m annual revenue coming from broadcast sales. The domestic rights deal with Sky Sports expires in 2028 and its value has not risen since 2019, another source of concern in an uncertain media landscape.

The impact of the ECB’s unbalanced revenue streams has been compounded by a significant increase in spending in recent years. The ECB’s central funding to counties increased by 31% from the previous cycle to £512m between 2025 and 2028, while it is also investing an additional £5m each year on women’s cricket over the same period.

The ECB raised £520m from the part-sale of the eight Hundred franchises to private investors last year, but the majority of that money is frozen in an escrow account to be distributed to counties wanting to pay off debt or invest in infrastructure projects. The ECB also has cash reserves of around £60m, which it is aiming to increase to £80m.