Democrat Kim McCarthy is canvassing in a middle-class Ohio neighborhood of four-bedroom, three-bathroom homes. There are $70,000 trucks in the driveways and robot lawnmowers at work.

“This is a neighborhood of two incomes and young families; people working hard,” says McCarthy, who is running against a three-time Republican incumbent for a seat in Ohio’s house of representatives.

Despite the manicured lawns, these are the very Ohioans struggling from the fallout of many of the Trump administration’s policies. They live in a district that includes the largest single-site employer in Ohio – the Wright-Patterson air force base – whose civilian contractors and employees have been hit hard by federal workforce cuts. Rising mortgage interest rates and wider affordability concerns are top of mind for many.

McCarthy’s opponent, Brian Lampton, beat her in a previous election by 15 points. In the presidential election two years ago, Trump won 60% of the vote here in Fairborn. But having knocked on thousands of Greene county doors, she says she’s noticed something different this year: people are telling her on the doorstep that they are planning to vote Democrat down the ballot for the first time.

“One woman I was speaking to earlier who worked in the military and recently retired was like: ‘Oh my God, I can’t afford anything.’ You could kind of see the sadness in her eyes,” she says.

This month, candidates from both parties running for office were invited to a forum held by the Greene County Tea Party, a conservative group, which McCarthy attended.

“It was basically empty,” she recalls.

Of only two residents to open their doors to McCarthy in the presence of a Guardian reporter, one said she and her husband had already voted Democrat down the ballot, while the other thanked her and said they would look into her policies.

For more than a decade, Ohio has been considered a firm Republican stronghold, but after 20 months of extreme Trump administration policies, signs of discontent with the status quo are appearing here. That could be critical for Democrats at every level on the ballot – the party is trying to reclaim a US Senate seat, the governor’s mansion, and a host of competitive house seats around the state.

Early voting indicators in Ohio suggest that participation among affiliated Democrats is higher this year when compared to 2024, especially in predominantly Republican districts.

According to the Ohio secretary of state’s data portal website, by 13 October more early voting ballots were returned in rural Defiance county by Democratic affiliated voters than by Republicans, despite Trump winning 69% of the vote in the county in the 2024 presidential election.

The county also had the highest ballot return rate in the state, at 19%, suggesting a high level of motivation.

The economy isn’t the only thing on voters’ minds. “The number one issue in Defiance right now is the proposed datacenter. There is a local investor who is entertaining the idea of selling property to a datacenter investor,” says Rebecca Kirkland of the Defiance County Democratic Party.

Trump has repeatedly encouraged communities to accept datacenters, telling supporters at a campaign rally outside Dayton, on 3 October, “We want them,” despite broad bipartisan opposition to their presence.

Home to a General Motors powertrain foundry that employs more than 500 people, Defiance county has also been hit hard by Trump’s tariffs war on Canada: among the plant’s main customers is the GM-owned St Catharines engine plant in Ontario, with engine parts that are built in Defiance are shipped for assembly across the Canadian border.

“There aren’t many high-paying jobs available in this area. We see posts on community Facebook pages of people looking for assistance finding work, housing or financial assistance,” says Kirkland.

Still, in a state that for decades turned older and whiter and was won by Trump in the last three presidential elections, Democrats know the odds are stacked against them. And pollsters are cautioning that the surge in early voting might not indicate that more Ohioans will vote for Democrats by the end of the election.

“I suspect any surge we may be seeing among Democrats could be due to concerns they may have about the USPS given the negative signaling by Donald Trump about the sanctity of mail-in votes,” says Robert Alexander, a professor of political science at Bowling Green State University.

“Many have grown untrustworthy of the administration and would prefer to cast their ballots in person rather than take any risks sending it through the post office.”

Brown beating Republican Jon Husted is seen as central to any hopes Democrats have of taking control of the Senate and polls put the pair neck and neck. Others have criticized the Ohio Democratic party’s lack of financial support for candidates running in districts that, until this year, weren’t seen as easily winnable.

“We’ve seen what happens when we don’t invest in these red areas,” says McCarthy, who is also chair of the Ohio Democratic Progressive Caucus. “We have to stop letting people run in these areas without any financial support.”

On the campaign trail, McCarthy doesn’t mention that she’s a Democrat – in fact, the word “Democrat” is mentioned only once in her flyer, towards the bottom of the back page.

She’s banking on an outpouring of rage against Republican leaders to get her over the line.

“We have registered Republicans showing up at our meetings for the first time tonight,” she says. “They are disgusted at the corruption.”