Ballon d’Or 2026 predictions: Yamal, Mbappe and Kane – who will win?

The race for the 2026 Ballon d’Or is heating up with less than 24 hours to go before the winner is announced at a glitzy ceremony in London.

A three-way contest between Lamine Yamal, Kylian Mbappe and Harry Kane leads the debate in the run-up to football’s most prestigious individual honour.

Yamal, Spain’s 19-year-old prodigy, and France’s 2018 World Cup winner Mbappe have both publicly endorsed themselves for the honour, while the unstoppable Kane of England has been relatively shy in campaigning for himself.

Predictions are pouring in thick and fast as we inch closer to the award ceremony at the London Palladium.

Ballon d’Or predictions: Who has AI picked as the winner?

According to data released by Avisia, a French data analysis and artificial intelligence firm, Yamal is the favourite to win the 2026 Ballon d’Or.

The Barcelona winger is tipped to have a 23 percent probability of lifting the trophy, awarded to the best footballer of the 2025-26 season.

The data and AI consulting firm chose Kane as a close second, with a 21 per cent probability, while Mbappe ranked third at 19 percent, tied with Rodri, the 2024 Ballon d’Or winner.

The top five list is rounded out by Lionel Messi given an 18 percent chance to win for a record-extending ninth time.

Avisia claims it correctly identified the top five for the 2025 Ballon d’Or, won by Ousmane Dembele.

Even though Yamal is Avisia’s top pick, it is Kane who the bookmakers see as the outright favourite, with about 70 percent probability.

What are the predictions of players and experts?

Atletico Madrid manager Diego Simeone thinks his compatriot Messi, who recently retired from international duty, deserves to lift the golden ball.

“After the World Cup, he played at his age… No doubt about it,” Simeone said.

Former Italy international Marco Materazzi echoed those thoughts.

“With all due respect to Yamal, I think Messi showed, at 38 years old, he’s in a different league,” he added.

Jude Bellingham, also shortlisted for the Ballon d’Or, backed England captain Kane and his attacking partner at the 2026 World Cup.

“He works so hard for it, and he’s a very honest and hard-working person,” Bellingham said. When asked if Kane could win, he added, “It’s definitely possible”.

Fellow England international Anthony Gordon sided with his Barcelona teammate Yamal.

“What Lamine has achieved at such a young age… the kind of player he is, is ridiculous. He’s on a whole other level,” said Gordon.

Mbappe, on the other hand, has the backing of his Real Madrid teammate Aurelien Tchouameni, who said the Frenchman had “an incredible season”.

Yamal, Kane or Mbappe: Who will win the Ballon d’Or?

Looking purely at individual statistics, Mbappe leads the race as La Liga’s top scorer with 25 goals and the Champions League’s leading marksman with 15.

Mbappe, furthermore, also won the World Cup’s Golden Boot and set the record for most World Cup goals (12).

Those staggering statistics make him a strong contender alongside Kane, who scored an incredible 73 goals last season – the most by any player since Messi netted 82 in 2011-12.

But Mbappe failed to win a trophy with either club or country, while Kane won the Bundesliga with Bayern but guided England only to a third-place finish. The lack of major titles weakens their case.

This is where Yamal stands out.

The youngster won the World Cup with Spain and La Liga with Barca, even though on the personal front, his statistics weren’t the greatest, with injury marring his campaign.

Recent history suggests that winning a title in one of the major tournaments has become almost a prerequisite.

Only four of the previous 19 Ballon d’Or winners failed to lift any of the Champions League, World Cup, European Championship or Copa America during the year they were honoured.

That bodes well for Yamal, who is bidding to become the youngest winner, hoping to surpass Brazilian Ronaldo, who was 21 when he won in 1997.