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In December 2019 Ursula von der Leyen returned to Brussels, the city where she spent her childhood, with the poise of a self-assured centrist and the promise of a visionary.

The Green Deal stood at the centre of her first presidency, offering climate hope and a surprisingly collaborative touch, flanked by the liberal Danish Executive Vice-President Margrethe Vestager and Frans Timmermans, the socialist Dutchman – co-stars in her ensemble cast.

That was Season 1.

But as Season 2 gets underway, followers of her first term might be wondering if they’re still watching the same show.

Or at least asking if the lead character has been switched and a doppelganger has taken the helm.

So what’s happened – is Ursula von der Leyen suffering an identity crisis, or simply channelling her inner political shapeshifter?

Different style, different priorities

The new Ursula appears to be a pragmatic political realist, even Machiavellian.

A significant part of this shift toward centralisation can be attributed to her powerful chief of staff, Bjoern Seibert, an adept puppet master skilfully pulling the strings of power within the Berlaymont building.

During Season 1, maverick Commissioners such as France’s Thierry Breton and Luxembourg’s Nicolas Schmit developed as characters critical of von der Leyen’s decisions. This has now disappeared from the script, and Ursula’s gone from ensemble lead to solo act.

Most importantly, they’ve been replaced with lower-profile allies who are kept in the dark on key decisions – most notably during the unveiling of the EU’s long-term budget, when Commissioners reportedly saw the figures only moments before the official curtain raise on the proposal.

Core priorities have seemingly vanished. There’s an air of political amnesia, or perhaps strategic dissociation, where past commitments are forgotten or discarded.

But what are Ursula von der Leyen’s true colours? Is she still the “Green Queen” of 2019, or has she transformed into the grey, power-consolidating “VDL”?

The curious case of the vanishing Green Deal

Let’s rewind to 2019, when von der Leyen made the Green Deal the crown jewel of her presidency.

Back then, “green” wasn’t just a policy, it was a vibe. The Green Deal was supposed to transform Europe’s economy, its agriculture and transport. Fast forward to today: the vibe’s off.

Her environmental mission seems increasingly distant, if not altogether abandoned.

Today, the Green Deal is conspicuously absent, not just from rhetoric, but also from official documents. In the new long-term EU budget proposal, for instance, the term isn’t mentioned once.

Many of its pillars are being dismantled piece by piece.

The most glaring example is the systematic rollback of Green Deal initiatives – such as the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism – through so-called “Omnibus” simplification proposals, with the latest retreat involving the proposed Green Claims Directive—meant to combat greenwashing.

More symbolic is the disappearance of the “Farm to Fork” strategy, once the farming side of the Green Deal, which has all but vanished from speeches, policy documents, and public messaging.

Its omission from the Commission’s long-awaited “Vision for Agriculture and Food” was effectively a quiet burial, making the document less of a vision and more a eulogy.

Officially, the Commission remains in denial, but the signs of abandonment are impossible to ignore.

Europe’s Beating Cancer Plan – missing a beat?

Green isn’t the only colour fading from von der Leyen’s palette, telling a story of a shifting focus. Over in the health file, there’s a quiet code blue, with a key dossier on life support.

In her first term, von der Leyen championed the European Health Union, with the Beating Cancer Plan as a cornerstone. With €4 billion on the table, the Commission pledged a full-frontal assault on tobacco, alcohol, asbestos, and other risk factors for cancer.

But momentum has slowed dramatically.

Measures targeting tobacco and alcohol reduction have stalled, and once-prioritised regulations (such as those governing sunbed usage) have been quietly dropped.

The new EU4Health budget reflects this decline.

In 2024, €115 million was allocated specifically for cancer. In 2025, this has been slashed to €60 million, now also covering not just cancer but also cardiovascular disease and other non-communicable illnesses.

With attention diverted to pandemic preparedness and other priorities, it’s unclear how much of the original vision will survive.

And with more open files than open funding lines, Brussels insiders are asking: is health promotion and the fight against cancer being reassigned to sleepy interns and relegated to just a historical footnote?

Back to her roots: Defence and military power

And yet, amid the abandonment of green and health priorities, von der Leyen appears more energised than ever, but on a different front: defence.

A year into her second term, the former German defence minister has returned to familiar territory. With the Green Deal receding, she has seized the geopolitical moment to promote a stronger European defence industry.

With her former life as Germany’s defence minister back in vogue (and with Frans Timmermans no longer breathing green fire down her neck), von der Leyen has pivoted hard to European defence.

An example: the EU’s upcoming budget cycle (starting in 2028) proposes a fivefold increase in defence and space funding. National budgets on defence are also rising, spurred by Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine.

Her Commission has also recently proposed structural changes: redirecting cohesion funds to defence, relaxing fiscal rules to allow greater military spending, launching the European Competitiveness Fund (ECF), and offering low-interest loans under the SAFE scheme.

There’s also an emphasis on simplifying defence procurement rules and boosting joint R&D initiatives.

Still to come: a military mobility package aimed at streamlining troop and equipment movement, and the unveiling of plans for a true “European Defence Union”.

With the US increasingly focused on the Indo-Pacific, the EU faces a test: can it become a credible security actor within NATO? And will von der Leyen’s defence push bear fruit in time to deter potential threats—particularly from Russia—by 2030?

The verdict: the jury’s still out…

From Green Deal visionary to defence strategist, von der Leyen’s transformation has raised eyebrows across Brussels and beyond, leaving many confused.

The contrast between the two mandates could not be starker. So, who is the real Ursula von der Leyen?

Is she the eco-champion who once promised to make Europe the first climate-neutral continent? Or the iron-fisted strategist consolidating power and refocusing on geopolitical muscle?

Perhaps both. Perhaps only one of them ever truly existed. Or maybe neither.

What’s clear is that the second mandate is not just more of the same: It’s a whole new season and a new cast. With the same protagonist wearing the same blazer but with different habits and a different mind.

As Brussels braces for the next plot twist, especially with US tariffs and budget wrangling, one thing’s for sure: Ursula von der Leyen is playing a different game.

And the rest of Europe? Still trying to figure out if this is a character arc… or a complete reboot.