Romanian exit polls project independent candidate Nicusor Dan in the lead with around 54% of the national votes and hard-right candidate George Simion with around 45%, in the cliffhanger Romanian presidential election that has transfixed and polarised the country.
However, all is still in play due to the projection nature of exit polls and the unprecedented diaspora votes, which are not factored into these projections and could therefore still decide the race in which over 11 million Romanians voted (64% turnout).
Avangarde projects Dan winning 54,9% of the votes and Simion 45,0%, while Curs projects Dan at 54,10% and Simion at 45,9%. The margin of error is 2%.
According to the exit polls’ national projections by pollsters Avangarde and Curs published by Euronews Romania, NATO’s Eastern flank country chose the pro-EU, pro-NATO candidate in a massive turnout marked by fear and resentment, overturning Simion’s lead in the first round.
But the voting trend of the last hours may still affect these projections, setting the stage for a dramatic election night in what most Romanians see as the most crucial vote in their post-communist history.
Also, the relativity of exit poll projections in previous elections, another sign of the hard-fought presidential election battle in the bitterly polarised Romania, means that the official count and the diaspora vote results will now grip Romania for the next hours until the final official result is announced.
The Avangarde pollster sociologists noticed a larger voting presence in the big cities, which tend to favour Dan, and lower participation in the countryside and smaller towns, where the big parties’ electorate does not have a candidate.
In the last hours of the voting, the Romanian foreign, interior and defence ministries denounced what they called “Russian interference,” warning voters about a fake news campaign rolled out on Telegram, TikTok and other social media platforms.
The Romanian foreign ministry spokesperson Andrei Tarnea said on X Sunday that “once again we see the distinctive signs of Russian interference (…) to influence the electoral process.
“This was expected,” he added.
In a coordinated move, the three ministries revealed that a fake video published on Sunday “falsely claims that French troops in Romania secretly wear Romanian gendarmerie uniforms to intervene internally,” has been linked directly to Russia.
Telegram founder Pavel Durov revealed that he refused a request from “a Western country”, which he didn’t name, to “silence” the conservative voices in Romania.
“Telegram will not restrict the liberties of Romanian users, nor will it block their political channels”, Durov said.
Follow Euronews Romania’s live coverage of the presidential election repeat’s runoff here.