Bitcoin’s [BTC] four-year shortage cycle drives its boom-bust swings.
Put merely, BTC’s value swings aren’t simply on-chain flows, whale stacking, macro rotations, or regulatory tailwinds. As a substitute, they’re additionally baked into halving-driven provide shocks that energy post-cycle rallies.
Heading into 2026, historical past alerts a doable bearish tilt. After monster post-halving pumps in 2017, 2021, and 2025, BTC sometimes sees corrective pullbacks — 73% in 2018, 65% in 2022.
Supply: TradingView (BTC/USDT)
Backing this, to this point, Bitcoin’s monitoring the historic sample: Mid-2025 sees a 23% YTD achieve after a 120% halving-year rally. Meaning shortage continues to be king, driving the availability shock.
On-chain, day by day issuance has slid to 400-500 BTC/day, down from 800-1000+ pre-2024 halving, reflecting Bitcoin’s programmed shortage. In the meantime, market cap has breached $2 trillion by mid-2025.
All advised, the 2025 rally is using this supply-demand squeeze. However can BTC carry the momentum into 2026, which historic cycles trace may lean bearish after the post-halving run?
4-year cycles in play: Will Bitcoin hit new highs?
Usually, Bitcoin follows a basic boom-bust cycle.
After euphoric rallies, FUD creeps in, triggering sell-offs and deeper corrections. With restricted demand left to soak up sky-high valuations, the market naturally retraces.
In brief, demand shortfall drove the 2018 and 2022 drawdowns.
On-chain, change reserves popped 2-3 million BTC by early 2019, almost 4 million in 2022, signaling heavy provide hitting the market amid corrections.
Nevertheless, even with inflated provide, demand couldn’t soak it up, fueling 60%+ annual drawdowns.
Now, heading into 2026, BTC addresses in revenue are overheating (basic cycle-top sign). Nevertheless, change reserves are dipping, with almost 20,000 BTC scooped this month.
If this supply-demand divergence holds, Bitcoin might break historic patterns and preserve grinding greater, doubtlessly getting into a contemporary value discovery part in 2026.