Why is Trump warning Zelenskyy not to hit Russian diesel refineries?

US President Donald Trump on Sunday asked Ukraine to stop hitting Russian diesel refineries, blaming the attacks for creating a diesel shortage that he said was “hurting the world”.

Russia and Ukraine remain locked in an intensifying missile war, with Ukrainian strikes on Russian oil and gas facilities squeezing Moscow’s oil output, despite Russia being one of the world’s largest oil producers.

Trump’s own war with Iran has also roiled energy markets. After the US and Israel struck Iran in February, oil and fuel prices soared well above $100 a barrel, before decreasing during the ceasefire. But as fighting between the US and Iran has resumed and escalated in recent weeks, oil prices have steadily risen, reaching nearly $108 a barrel on Sunday.

In addition, US midterm elections are approaching in November, heightening political pressure as rising fuel costs have become a liability for Trump’s Republicans: Diesel prices are now at a record high in the US.

So, are the Ukrainian attacks really driving the global diesel shortage? Or is Trump’s own war in the Middle East to blame?

Here’s what we know:

What did Trump say?

Trump raised the issue at the Amgen Irish Open, held at his own golf course in Doonbeg, Ireland, telling reporters that he’d spoken to Zelenskyy about it.

“Mr. Zelenskyy has to do one thing: He has to stop knocking out diesel fuel in Russia,” Trump said. “There are plenty of other targets,” arguing that the global diesel shortage stems from the Russia-Ukraine war.

Ukraine, however, has long argued that it considers Russian energy infrastructure a legitimate military target, since Russia’s oil and gas industry directly powers Moscow’s finances, and so, its war on its western neighbour.

How badly has Ukraine been hitting Russian refineries?

Ukraine has been pummelling Russian oil facilities for months, leading Russia to impose restrictions on its own fuel exports.

Russia’s fuel oil exports fell to 591,000 barrels a day in August, down from the average 860,000 bpd in 2025, according to Kpler data spanning back to 2017.

Hours before Trump’s comments on Sunday, Ukraine’s military said it had hit the TANECO refinery in Russia’s Tatarstan republic. Police said two civilians were killed.

Russia has retaliated by targeting petrol stations, mostly near the front line, with attacks accelerating since April, at least 246 have been hit so far.

Chris Beauchamp, chief market analyst at IG Group, told Al Jazeera that while Ukraine’s strikes are seriously affecting Russia’s key export industry, the real impact for now is on Russian civilians. Late last month, dozens of petrol stations in St Petersburg ran out of supplies. Long queues of customers have been seen at petrol stations in several parts of Russia.

“For the moment, the impact is mainly on the civilian population, a move designed to increase domestic pressure on the Russian president,” Beauchamp told Al Jazeera, speaking of Ukraine’s motive in attacking Russia’s energy facilities.

How much diesel does Russia supply the world?

Russia supplies about 150,00 barrels of diesel a day globally, down 81 percent from its five-year average, due to its own export restrictions and damage to refineries caused by Ukrainian attacks.

Combined diesel exports from Russia and the Gulf in August were 1.6 million barrels a day lower than in February, when they accounted for nearly 45 percent of global trade, according to the International Energy Agency.

How high have diesel prices risen in the US?

US diesel prices are nearly 65 percent higher since the US and Israel struck Iran in February, with the national average around $6.20 a gallon (3.78 litres) on Sunday, according to the American Automobile Association.

Regular gasoline (petrol) is $4.31 a gallon, about 45 percent higher in the same period.

Since ships, trains and trucks all run on diesel, the increases in prices have been contributing to the rising cost of everyday goods. With the US economy becoming a hot topic ahead of the midterms, Trump’s approval rating on economic handling has slid to just 17 percent, according to a recent poll by the Financial Times.

Why are diesel prices soaring?

Beauchamp says Ukrainian strikes are only a “small ingredient” of the bigger picture.

The US hasn’t imported Russian diesel since 2022, when Moscow invaded Ukraine, he explained.

Oil prices were 40 percent lower before the Iran war began, pointing instead to US military action in the Middle East as the primary reason for rising diesel prices, one that Beauchamp says “threatens to tip the world economy into recession”.

The IEA points to a similar conclusion: Damage to Russian refineries and its reduced exports compound losses already caused by the war in the Gulf.

The Strait of Hormuz, once responsible for shipping about a fifth of global oil supply, remains stuck in the push-and-pull between the US and Iran. Saudi Arabia’s East-West pipeline, a key alternative export route, was knocked offline on Thursday after a drone attack allegedly launched from Iraq.

Beyond crude prices, refineries in both the Middle East and Russia that convert oil into usable fuel have suffered damage due to war.

“A cessation of Ukrainian attacks might bring the price down slightly and in the short term,” Beauchamp told Al Jazeera. “But with the main driver unresolved, that move would rapidly be reversed”.