Why India has soured on Trump ahead of US midterms

New Delhi, India — Standing next to United States President Donald Trump, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi delivered praise after praise.

“Every time [we meet], he has been the same: warm, friendly, accessible, energetic, and full of wit,” he said of Trump, as they addressed a joint rally in a Houston, Texas, stadium packed with more than 50,000 Indian Americans.

That was in 2019, ahead of the 2020 US presidential vote, when Trump was facing a major electoral test – seeking re-election to a second term. Modi was, in effect, galvanising support for him among the Indian-American community, the wealthiest diaspora in the US.

Modi even borrowed a line from his own successful election campaigns, saying: “Abki baar, Trump sarkaar!”, Hindi for “This time, a Trump government.”

But Trump lost.

Seven years later, as Trump prepares for difficult midterm elections that could see him lose significant numbers in the US Congress, potentially crippling his legislative agenda, New Delhi’s equation with Washington could not be more different.

Far from endorsing Trump, Indian officials have in recent weeks been more direct than ever in their criticism of his administration, amid a series of setbacks to bilateral ties. And many analysts believe the Modi government may now actually prefer a Trump chastened by midterm losses.

Striking a nerve

India has long enjoyed bipartisan support in Washington. Yet traditionally, New Delhi’s strategic community has often felt more comfortable with Republican presidents in power.

It was under Ronald Reagan, as the Cold War wound down, that India and the US reset ties after decades of mistrust amid New Delhi’s strong relationship with Moscow. Then, between 2006 and 2008, under George W Bush, India and the US struck a landmark civil nuclear deal. India was allowed access to global nuclear technology and fuel despite not being a signatory to the Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT). Under Bush, India and the US also signed major military pacts, including allowing US ships and planes refuelling and logistical access to Indian bases.

By contrast, New Delhi has often seen US Democratic administrations as more critical of India’s human rights record.

The tradition of friendly ties with US Republican presidents appeared set to continue under Trump, amid visible bonhomie between the US leader and Modi. The Indian prime minister even called Trump “India’s best friend in the White House”.

But Trump 2.0 has been very different, from India’s perspective.

So different that New Delhi has chosen to break with a long-held practice. India usually addresses divisive issues with friendly nations quietly, behind the scenes. But months of tensions on a string of issues have pushed India to adopt a more openly critical tone towards the White House.

Last month, speaking at an event in New York, India’s foreign minister, Minister of External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar, shared a pointed, blunt assessment of the Trump administration: It has been an insensitive partner to India’s concerns over “terrorism”; has warmed to its archrival Pakistan; and has pursued “self-centred” trade policies that have disproportionately hurt the Global South.

“Countries should not be so self-centred that you’re in your own world and take your decision, and say, ‘Well, it was not my intention to make your life difficult’,” he said.

One of the biggest sticking points between both capitals is an elusive trade deal that could bring relief to India, among the worst-hit countries under Trump’s tariff regime.

Earlier this month, India’s finance minister, Minister of Corporate Affairs Nirmala Sitharaman, said that the negotiations had reached a “plateau beyond which giving or taking might be very difficult”.

Trump’s Make America Great Again (MAGA) movement has also often targeted Indians and Indian Americans, using racist tropes, accusing them of “stealing” jobs in the United States via programmes like the H-1B visa schemes. Anti-Indian rhetoric on US social media is at an all-time high. And early in his second term, Trump sent many undocumented Indian immigrants back home shackled in chains – a visual that stirred outrage in India.

Milan Vaishnav, director of the South Asia programme at the Washington, DC-based Carnegie Endowment for International Peace think tank, said the Indian government “can tolerate genuine policy differences with a US administration”. However, “the attacks on India and Indian Americans coming from this administration, and many of their allies in the media and on social media, have struck a nerve,” he said.

Vaishnav, like other analysts, told Al Jazeera that despite recent criticism coming from New Delhi, “the Modi government has shown admirable restraint in its response”.

‘Brought back distrust’

Since Trump returned to office in 2025, the US-India relationship has been beset by a seemingly never-ending series of crises.

Some of the irritants are: punitive US tariffs and stalled trade negotiations; Washington’s pressure on India to stop buying Russian oil; Trump’s repeated claims that he mediated an India-Pakistan ceasefire in 2025, which New Delhi rejects; closer US ties with Pakistan despite India’s concerns over “terrorism”; higher H-1B specialised worker visa fees in the US, and Trump’s wider immigration crackdown affecting Indian workers.

At one point, India was among the countries facing the worst Trump-imposed tariff rates. After the US Supreme Court in February struck down Trump’s sweeping tariffs on numerous nations, his administration swiftly turned to other tools, including a new 10 percent global tariff.

Last month, Trump signed a law under which the US can impose up to 100 percent tariffs on countries like India that buy Russian oil. However, he paused it to avoid driving up energy prices in the US ahead of November’s midterm elections, while keeping negotiations with Russia over Moscow’s war in Ukraine on track.

US Secretary of State Marco Rubio, who visited India’s financial hub Mumbai this week, but skipped the capital, said in an interview with The Indian Express that “none of these tariffs are meant to punish or harm India”.

Rubio argued that Washington’s “broader foreign policy, unfortunately, involves a war going on between Russia and Ukraine” — and added that “one of the reasons why [Trump paused the tariff] is because he understands that it would have a very detrimental impact on a very important relationship with India”.

But Rubio did not rule out that similar measures would return in a matter of time. “I think the president is trying very hard to balance that… but it will be a challenge”, he remarked.

Praveen Donthi, a senior analyst at the Brussels-based International Crisis Group, told Al Jazeera: “Under Trump 2.0, the bipartisan consensus on India seems to have ended in Washington.

“The sentiment [in Washington] seems too strong to be attributed solely to President Trump; it points to the broader American establishment,” Donthi said.

The measures undertaken by the Trump administration “have brought back distrust of the US among the Indian strategic establishment”, he said, referring to Cold War-era tensions.

Can a midterm loss subdue Trump?

The upcoming US midterm elections are crucial for Trump. If he loses control of Congress for the final two years of his presidency, it would give Democrats more power to scrutinise his administration’s policies.

Trump is facing the worst approval ratings of his political career amid record-high gas prices in the US due to the global energy crisis triggered by the US-Israel war on Iran, which began in February this year.

Vaishnav, of Carnegie Endowment, said that “a chastened Trump would be in India’s interests”.

“There are many Democrats on Capitol Hill, not to mention Republicans, who are livid with this administration’s handling of US-India ties,” he said. “While they might have their criticisms of India’s politics, economics, and foreign policy, they genuinely believe in the logic of a strong US-India partnership.”

A Democrat-dominated Congress could have a “moderating impact” on Washington’s foreign policy, he said.

But Michael Kugelman, a Washington-based analyst on South Asia, said he doubts Trump’s foreign policy would be affected by the election results, “at least not when it comes to the question of India”.

Kugelman noted that Trump is entering the last era of his presidency – he cannot legally run for a third term – and “he is going to continue to pursue a policy that he would think could best advance US economic interests” when it comes to dealing with New Delhi.

“If he thinks that could entail threatening additional tariffs on India, then he would do that.”

Crisis Group’s Donthi told Al Jazeera that New Delhi would hope that bilateral relations improve after Trump leaves office, “and that [Washington] can take a more patient, strategic approach”.

But, meanwhile, he said, a weakened Trump might not necessarily bring relief to India, “as there seems to be broader consensus [among Trump-aligned Republicans] on the need to pressure India”.

For New Delhi, that landscape marks a dramatic shift from just a few years ago.

Two years back, days after Trump had won the 2024 election, Foreign Minister Jaishankar said, with a wide smile, that “many countries are nervous about the US today, but let’s be honest — we [India] are not one of them”.

Today, those smiles are gone.