What Vucic’s defeat means for Serbia’s foreign policy

Serbia has reached a watershed moment following 14 years of authoritarian rule by Aleksandar Vucic and his Serbian Progressive Party (SNS).

Sunday’s election delivered a historic victory for the opposition Student List, ending the political dominance that Vucic and the SNS had exercised/enforced for 14 years.

As Belgrade prepares for a turbulent transition and the upcoming presidential elections in December, international observers and regional neighbours have been asking whether Vucic’s departure will prompt a shift in Serbia’s foreign policy.

However, while international analysts often anticipate a quick foreign policy pivot toward the West whenever an authoritarian regime falls, experts warn that internal consolidation will take immediate priority and any transformation will be gradual.

Domestic cleanup before regional reset

SNS’s defeat has brought a mixture of cautious optimism and uncertainty across the Western Balkans. Serbia’s relations with Bosnia and Herzegovina, Croatia, Montenegro and Kosovo have often been frayed by Vucic’s nationalistic rhetoric.

Aleksandar Popov, director of the Centre for Regionalism in Novi Sad in Serbia, told Al Jazeera that a rapid reset in regional relations was unlikely.

“These questions will not be on the agenda immediately,” he said, referring to relations with Serbia’s neighbours.

The new authorities will first have to tackle domestic problems, he said, including dealing with a system that has “captured all democratic institutions”, as well as problems in the judiciary, prosecution service, police and media sector.

“Tidying up at home” will take priority before “solving problems with the neighbours”, Popov said, despite noting that the outgoing regime had done everything possible to undermine regional relations.

While relations with Croatia are “not frozen” neither are they “the way they should … be between neighbours”, being marked by frequent sharp words.

Amid recent mass protests in Serbia, Vucic accused Zagreb of organising a “colour revolution”.

In addition, “relations with Montenegro are disrupted and issues with Bosnia and Herzegovina remain unresolved,” he said.

Stabilising the region

Croatia is the thorniest case, Popov suggested, noting that relations deteriorated as the SNS clashed with Croatia’s ruling Croatian Democratic Union (HDZ), which stems from a similar nationalist-populist stable.

“Zagreb would fire a poisoned arrow at Serbia and that gave Belgrade an argument to retaliate,” he said, describing a system that “functioned on the production of internal and external enemies”.

Meanwhile, behind the public hostility, lay a quiet convergence on Bosnia and Herzegovina, he argued, with Belgrade backing Republika Srpska leader Milorad Dodik and Zagreb favouring a third entity.

He expressed hope that a new government in Serbia led by experts and civic leaders, would work towards stabilising the region and revive Serbia’s hopes of joining the European Union.

“The previous government sabotaged EU integration and the EU will not accept a country without good neighbourly relations. The new government’s task will be to repair those damaged ties,” Popov said.

Russia and Ukraine

Beyond the immediate neighbourhood, global powers are closely watching Belgrade.

Under Vucic, Serbia maintained a delicate balancing act, refusing to impose sanctions on Russia despite heavy pressure from the EU, while simultaneously allowing ammunition to flow indirectly to Ukraine.

Of all elements of Serbian public policy, foreign policy will transform the least under the forthcoming governmental changes, Vuk Vuksanovic, a lecturer in foreign policy at King’s College London, predicted to Al Jazeera.

“Many international and domestic structures that shape Serbian foreign policy will remain in place,” he said, adding that Moscow never fully trusted Vucic, but viewed him instead as “the devil they knew”.

Russian influence will take a blow, with the end of uncritical glorification of Moscow in Vucic-controlled tabloids and media and intelligence cooperation to be downgraded, he said, but the new government is unlikely to adopt a hawkish stance overnight.

Serbian interests can continue to be served by ties with Russia, he asserted. “The country still needs preferential gas prices, the Kosovo dispute remains unresolved and parts of the public remain disillusioned with the West.”

“The new Serbian government will not see value in joining EU sanctions or adopting a hawkish stance toward Moscow,” Vuksanovic continued.

“Regarding Ukraine, Serbia will maintain its policy of not recognising the annexation of Crimea and Donbas. However, there is a question mark over ammunition deliveries, as the opposition viewed Vucic’s weapons sales to Kyiv as a cynical ploy to buy Western tolerance for his domestic rule.”

Ties with Israel

Another critical dimension of Serbia’s external relations is its close relationship with Israel. Under Vucic, Serbia established a strong partnership with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s government, marked by arms trade and technology exchanges.

Bosko Jaksic, a foreign policy analyst, told Al Jazeera that while ties will not be severed, recent controversial agreements will face scrutiny.

“The new government has no reason to abandon cooperation with Israel, but it will certainly re-examine newly concluded contracts – primarily those concerning Serbian ammunition exports to Israel and Israeli surveillance equipment exports to Serbia,” Jaksic said.

The analyst also noted that Netanyahu’s government has lost another “authoritarian, nationalist ally” in Europe after Viktor Orban’s removal in Hungary earlier this year. However, Serbia’s future stance will also depend on political developments in Jerusalem.

“How Israel positions itself toward the new authorities in Belgrade depends largely on the outcome of Israel’s own elections,” Jaksic added.

Multiple chairs

Looking at the broader geopolitical alignment, he emphasised that Serbia’s foreign policy will inevitably undergo a review.

He suggested that “the policy of ‘sitting on multiple chairs,’ which brought Serbia more harm than good, will certainly be re-evaluated”, and that it is realistic to expect Belgrade to strengthen ties with the EU.

But as Serbia enters a new political era, the international community should expect a period of intense internal reform rather than sudden geopolitical realignments, all of the analysts agree.