Between us, we have covered the NBA for more than 40 years. We have never seen a championship-level team potentially lose two valuable players in one evening in the first week of the season like the Oklahoma City Thunder did Sunday night.
Over the past several days, injuries to Jalen Williams (fractured left fibula, dislocated ankle) and Cason Wallace (labrum tear) -- the Thunder are decidedly not ruling out either player for the season, but both face lengthy recoveries -- has sparked a tremendous amount of discussion within rival front offices.
Some chatter is rooted in strategy, such as how the Thunder's next steps could create a cascading effect of moves around the league. Some is for theory's sake, such as analyzing general manager Sam Presti's response as an exercise in dealing with such a scenario. And some is downright gossip, which is the nature of the NBA.
But after deep conversations throughout the league, let's get very real about what Oklahoma City is up against.
Brian Windhorst: Let's start with what Presti and the Thunder are not going to do: panic.
That is just not how general managers operate in their 19th year in the job. And in speaking to sources across the league this week, several important points emerged as the franchise grappled with this extreme change in circumstance. One of the biggest: The Thunder have one of the youngest teams in the NBA but have evolved far beyond any "team of potential" labels.
Tim MacMahon: How much urgency should the Thunder have? That's a subject of debate around the league, and Oklahoma City's long-term financial dilemma of funding a contender through Shai Gilgeous-Alexander's prime has to factor into the conversation.
"As great as Shai is, you really owe it to him to try to cash in on his prime," one Western Conference executive told ESPN, making the case for Presti being aggressive in this season's trade market.
Another West executive, noting that the back-to-back MVP is still just 28 years old, countered: "Shai's prime is not a short window."
Windhorst: The OKC ownership, leadership and coaching staff have been with the team for a long time. And over the past few days, there's been discussion of the 2014-15 season. That year, Kevin Durant had three foot surgeries and played just 27 games and Russell Westbrook missed 15 with injury.
Naturally, there were calls at the time from outside and discussion within the organization about making reactionary trades. After consideration, the Thunder did not overreact then and they got healthy. They won 45 games and missed the postseason by a game. The next season, they won 55 games, upset the 67-win San Antonio Spurs in the playoffs and lost to the 73-win Golden State Warriors in seven games.
The same people, generally, are still in charge of the team. They do not have to do something now.
MacMahon: If Presti does elect to pursue a deal, multiple executives identified the New Orleans Pelicans as a potential trade partner with defensive stopper Herb Jones or 3-and-D wing Trey Murphy III as possible targets. The Pelicans have set a high asking price for Murphy in recent transaction cycles, making it clear that multiple first-round picks would need to be involved to pique their interest, according to league sources.
Presti has a deep war chest of future first-round picks, but that has been true for years. He never engaged in discussions for that type of blockbuster deal while deliberately building this roster.
"That's not who they are," one Eastern Conference executive said. "I think they'd rather play their young guys and see what they have."
Windhorst: Jones has been floated in trade rumors for the last year or so. On the surface, you can understand why. In a league where nearly every team is searching for defensive specialists on the wing -- that's certainly where the Thunder have been hit hard -- Jones has a good reputation and isn't getting much playing time. But...
"When Jones signed that extension, his value changed," a West executive said, noting his salary bumps from just under $15 million this season to nearly $21 million in 2027-28.
"That is a negative value contract to us. [New Orleans] would have some trouble trading him for anything close to what they'd asked for him in the past."
MacMahon: The basketball fit for either Jones or Murphy is obvious after Oklahoma City lost two All-Defensive wings -- months after sending All-Defensive wing Luguentz Dort to Atlanta in a cost-cutting move motivated primarily by the desire to create room in the starting lineup and budget for Wallace.
The financial fit? It is perhaps prohibitive for Murphy, who is making $27 million this season -- a number that would require the Thunder to include a core player to make salaries match in a trade -- and is due a total of $60 million over the next two years. Jones doesn't make as much, but his money would also be problematic: $14.9 million this season before his three-year, $67.6 million extension kicks in.
Windhorst: Despite those cost-cutting moves, the Thunder have a payroll that is currently projected to surpass $500 million (including luxury taxes) for the 2027-28 season. That includes Ajay Mitchell, their talented young guard whose role is growing in the wake of the injuries, playing on a $2.8 million team option for next season. The Thunder will probably be interested in doing a new deal to keep him out of 2028 free agency, but that could add significantly to that payroll figure. It could potentially reach $600 million if no players are offloaded.
Some rival executives have spent the past few days wondering whether the Thunder, with this season's plan radically altered, will take steps now to manage future spending.
"They are eventually going to have to reduce their payroll, and they could look to do something that adds to the roster now and gets off longer-term money," an East executive said.
"They can wait awhile before deciding, but [the injuries] happening now gives them time to look for opportunities."
MacMahon: NBA trades don't typically happen on Halloween. They don't typically happen before Thanksgiving. The trade market doesn't really even open until Dec. 15, when most players who signed new contracts become eligible to be moved.
Not that Presti would be in any rush.
A few seasons ago, there was a lot of external noise about Presti pressing fast forward by bundling some first-round picks to make a splashy, win-now trade. He took another route, moving some future salary in a deal to get Gordon Hayward at the 2024 trade deadline. Hayward disappointed during his brief stint in Oklahoma City before retiring, but that move created the financial flexibility for the Thunder to sign Isaiah Hartenstein in free agency that summer, filling in one of the final pieces of the championship puzzle.
These circumstances are drastically different, but Presti has a history of prioritizing the big picture over quick fixes.
"Are you really going to mortgage two or three years to try to salvage one year? That doesn't make sense," a West scout said. "Just be patient. Sam's a very smart individual. Nobody needs to worry for him."
Windhorst: A year ago, Presti and the Thunder were facing nearly the same level of payroll but made three salary-clearing trades last summer and are currently under the second apron for this season. And, based on our conversations, the Thunder are very much mindful of the calendar. But the other way around.
A key factor to realize is the Thunder have until February 2028, when that trade deadline comes 15 months from now, before they have to finalize spending and their tax bill for the 2027-28 season. It is harder to reduce payroll during the season than six to 12 months out, but it can be done.
In the meantime, the Thunder could benefit from a one-time expansion payout that could exceed $500 million per team. They are also building a new taxpayer-funded arena that will unlock some fresh revenue in the medium term. It is true they are facing a historic payroll challenge, but it is dovetailing with some possible new money that makes budgeting a little uncertain.
Again, they don't have to do something now.
MacMahon: Oklahoma City's payroll is already set to increase significantly with Gilgeous-Alexander's supermax extension and Wallace's freshly signed five-year, $139 extension both beginning next season. And it's not just Mitchell, Jared McCain is in line to discuss a lucrative extension next summer.
"They're between a rock and a hard place," a third West executive said. "I think it took a lot to get ownership to sign off on that Wallace extension. You're kind of capped out financially. What realistically can you do?"
One scenario the Thunder could explore is searching for a player who has years remaining on his rookie contract, which is the route Presti took to steal McCain from the Sixers last season.
One candidate suggested by a few league sources: Sacramento Kings wing Nique Clifford, who has bizarrely fallen out of coach Doug Christie's rotation after a promising rookie season.
Windhorst: The Thunder might show their thinking a little by next week. The deadline to pick up the contract options for Thomas Sorber, who remains out after a second knee surgery in the last year, and Nikola Topic, who is recovering from offseason back surgery, is Monday. The two would make a combined $12.5 million next year if the options were picked up.
"The first tell is going to be what they do with these options," an Eastern Conference executive said. "If they pass on them, it's potentially $100 million in savings next year [including luxury taxes. They have to make a choice somewhere. None of these things are clean fixes."
As for Clifford and the Kings, his name has gotten around the league a little as an early trade candidate. The Kings, however, are telling people they value Clifford and do not feel compelled to trade him.
"It's still too early to think about any of this stuff," one GM said. "I've got agents calling me asking about trading for their guys. It's the first week of the year, wait until I finish my coffee."