Just around the halfway point of the NFL season, there is a new consensus favorite for league MVP, and he is one who could cause headaches for sportsbooks if he goes on to win the honor for the first time.
After throwing for 16 touchdowns over his past four games, Cincinnati Bengals quarterback Joe Burrow is the new favorite for MVP across the sportsbook marketplace, showing +210 odds at DraftKings. He surpassed Buffalo Bills QB Josh Allen (+240), who had been the favorite since the preseason, on Sunday and maintained that lead through Buffalo's victory over the Minnesota Vikings on Monday night.
It's a particularly unsettling development for sportsbooks, who have seen Burrow be one of the most consistently backed players for MVP over the past few campaigns. Before this season, the Bengals quarterback had attracted the most tickets at BetMGM and was considered the only liability among the top-three preseason favorites at Caesars Sportsbook, according to the company's head of football Joey Feazel.
"We have continued to shorten his price as he lights up the scoreboard and strengthens his case each week," Feazel told ESPN over email on Sunday evening. "As of today, Burrow represents one of the best potential outcomes for bettors and one of the more significant liabilities for the book."
Bookmakers may have been counting on Allen to retake the odds lead on "Monday Night Football," but that did not materialize when he put up a just-OK performance in a defensive battle with Minnesota. Feazel mentioned that the Bills quarterback has attracted plenty of action from bettors, but his short odds throughout the season dictate that he won't be as much of a liability should he win his second MVP award.
"Burrow I would say is the guy that has probably been the most consistently bet since the beginning. There was no time when it looked like he was out of the race, and the same goes for Josh Allen," DraftKings director of sports operations Johnny Avello told ESPN. "[Burrow] is not on the plus side for us, but he's not the worst guy for us either."
That honor belongs to Chicago Bears quarterback Caleb Williams, whose odds have fluctuated wildly between brilliant and substandard performances -- such as his four-interception stinker against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers on Sunday night -- as well as a three-game absence due to injury.
Williams carries 16-1 MVP odds at DraftKings, placing him sixth on the board, but he has amassed a large amount of ticket volume throughout the season, including a leading 12.2% of the bet share at BetMGM; Burrow is currently second at the book at 11.1%.
"Caleb had the most adjustments, as after his injury on the field and getting carted off, it appeared that he was going to be out long term, and that bumped his odds to 80-1 at one point compared to where he sits today," Feazel said. "Williams is the one we would most like to avoid, as bettors have built the largest liability on him among these contenders."
San Francisco 49ers quarterback Brock Purdy (+425), Green Bay Packers quarterback Jordan Love (+650) and Jacksonville Jaguars quarterback Trevor Lawrence (+900) complete the top six MVP favorites at DraftKings. Purdy represents a mixed bag of liability among the sportsbooks, Lawrence would mostly represent a sportsbook win if he took home the award, and Love has started to gain some traction with bettors amid his recent run of impressive play.
Avello also notes that some DraftKings bettors are taking fliers on Detroit Lions QB Jared Goff at 45-1, counting on his solid play being recognized as the season progresses.