A US Senate race in one of the most Republican states in the country is now a dead heat, according to a new poll showing Annie Andrews, a Democrat, tied with Darline Graham, the Republican incumbent senator.

South Carolina has not elected a Democrat to the Senate since 1998, and Donald Trump won it by nearly 18 points in 2024, but a New York Times/Siena poll this week has the two candidates neck and neck, at 48% each.

Graham was appointed to the seat after her brother, Lindsey Graham, died in July, and she entered the race at Trump’s urging, without having ever held elected office.

Her inexperience has become one of the defining aspects of the campaign, which culminated in an August debate when she admitted she was “not that informed on national security” when asked about US policy on Taiwan. In the poll, 51% of voters said she lacked the right experience to be an effective senator.

Andrews, a pediatrician from Charleston, has meanwhile built her campaign around her medical career. Her solution to better access to doctors and climbing medical bills has been to advocate for a public option and cheaper prescription drugs.

But she has kept her distance from the Democratic party’s left flank, saying she does not support the Medicare for All proposed model of universal healthcare, while also conceding that Democrats failed on the border, and declining to name a national Democrat she would like to campaign with her. That pitch appears to be working with independents, who back her over Graham by 57% to 37%.

Graham, by contrast, is leaning heavily on Trump’s support. She opposes abortion rights, and has said she completely trusts Trump on tariffs and the war with Iran. On immigration, she has argued that anyone in the country illegally should be deported “immediately”.

Trump visited the state last week to rally for Graham in a 90-minute speech, calling Andrews extreme and drawing repeated interruptions from protesters. He returns again on Thursday.

Republicans are spending heavily in South Carolina, despite their longstanding electoral dominance in the state. The party’s establishment is also not entirely united: one Republican congressman, Ralph Norman, who lost the runoff against Graham, has said he will not campaign for her.

Other recent polls show an equally tight contest, though most have Graham narrowly ahead. A South Carolina Policy Council survey conducted this month gave Graham a one-point lead, within its margin of error. That same poll showed how much Andrews has been outrunning her own party – the Democratic candidate for governor, Jermaine Johnson, trailed the Republican, Alan Wilson, by 10 points.