It’s the final countdown. Australia have bossed Renshaw’s Match so far, but it still has the slender chance to become Markram’s Match. He’s still there, that’s why. Here is the equation, in dot point form:

  • South Africa need 319 further runs on the last day to win.

  • That’s unlikely.

  • One of the reasons it’s unlikely is that they are already four wickets down.

  • Aiden Markram and Wiaan Mulder are good, but they don’t have enough backup to take on a chase that size.

  • Therefore Australia need six wickets to win.

  • But cricket has another option. Sometimes neither team wins.

  • If South Africa can bat 90 overs, they’ll draw.

  • But it probably doesn’t have to be 90 overs.

  • Bad light has stopped play early throughout this Test.

  • So, it could be drawn in 60 overs, or 70, or 80.

What does all this mean? Still plenty to play for. Australia should win it, that’s what probability says, but the South Africans have pulled out some amazing defensive efforts in various fourth innings over the years. Either option is still plausible.