Following his team's convincing 52-28 win against Ole Miss on Saturday, Florida coach Jon Sumrall stated bluntly, "We have not arrived."
And yet here they are.
Florida changed the playoff picture in Week 4, setting up a head-to-head trifecta of results and ranking implications with Ole Miss and LSU -- the type of SEC log jam the selection committee has seen before and needed the head-to-head tiebreakers to help sort out. Florida has now scored 40 or more points in its first four games for the first time since 2001, when Steve Spurrier was the head coach.
It was one of the few convincing wins on Saturday against a ranked opponent. Texas wasn't pretty in its escape of Tennessee. Indiana wasn't pretty at home against unranked Northwestern.
"I'm sure everybody is disappointed because they still have the national championship hangover," coach Curt Cignetti said after his game, "but I can't do anything about that."
Georgia? It was the model of a complete team in its dismantling of an unranked Oklahoma team. If only Georgia and Texas played each other during the regular season to settle it on the field. For now, it's settled here, with this week's projection of the top 12. Based on historical knowledge and an understanding of the criteria and protocol, here's a look at what the selection committee might do if the rankings were today.
Projecting the top 12
1. Texas Longhorns (4-0)
Why they could be here: Texas is not a flawless No. 1 team -- not with 11 penalties for 115 yards and a relatively ineffective offense for most its game with Tennessee. But the Longhorns went on the road and won in one of the SEC's toughest venues, earning their second win this season against a ranked opponent. The win against Ohio State should continue to increase in value as the season progresses.
Why they could be lower: Arch Manning was sacked six times, he had one interception and no touchdowns, the Longhorns were held to 61 rushing yards and just 3-of-12 on third downs. They lost the turnover battle.
Need to know: If Texas continues to find ways to win -- even if it's ugly -- its schedule is difficult enough that the selection committee would likely keep the Longhorns as its top team. The undisciplined play, though, and problems on offense that were exposed against the Vols, could come back to haunt Texas if it is in a debate with another team that has the same record and looks better on film and in the analytics.
Toughest remaining game: Nov. 14 at LSU. This will be the second of three road games in the month of November when the committee is paying the closest attention.
2. Ohio State Buckeyes (3-1)
Why they could be here: The Texas win at Tennessee will help Ohio State in the committee meeting room, as the Buckeyes' lone loss was by one point on the road to what should be the group's top team at this point. While the Buckeyes were outplayed and outcoached in the fourth quarter at Texas, the committee probably won't penalize them too much for one quarter that early in the season on the road. The Buckeyes had no problem dismantling an average Illinois team Saturday to win their first Big Ten game of the season. If there is a significant gap between two teams' strength of schedule ranking, the group typically leans toward the contender that has played a more challenging schedule, and right now, the Buckeyes have that edge over Georgia. Ohio State also moved up one spot in part because Ole Miss tumbled down after its double-digit loss at Florida.
Why they could be lower: Georgia's win against Oklahoma will give its strength of schedule somewhat of a boost, and the undefeated Bulldogs have looked like a national title contender, albeit against significantly weaker opponents. Ohio State's defense raised some questions after the Illini ran for 199 yards and averaged six yards per carry. The committee only ranks teams based on what they have done to date, and Ohio State is still looking for its first win of the season against a ranked opponent.
Need to know: The committee has historically held teams in high regard that have Heisman contenders, and Ohio State has two in quarterback Julian Sayin and receiver Jeremiah Smith. Smith is the leader and made headlines again Saturday when he tied the school record with four touchdown catches and had career highs with 12 receptions for 217 yards.
Toughest remaining game: Oct. 17 at Indiana. The Hoosiers struggled at home against Northwestern on Friday, but coach Curt Cignetti will have them ready for the Buckeyes. Ohio State also has a bye week to prepare for the Halloween trip to USC.
3. Georgia Bulldogs (4-0)
Why they could be here: The Bulldogs' defense smothered the unranked Sooners, who are now a two-loss team after four turnovers, just 65 rushing yards and, well, somewhat of an identity crisis. While Georgia has yet to earn a true statement win, it's doing what Indiana did last year: Plowing through every opponent with the same level of consistency and dominance. That's something the selection committee is unlikely to ignore. Georgia leads the nation in total efficiency and offensive efficiency, but would have a hard time unseating Texas at this point because its schedule ranks No. 123 in the country. One of Georgia's lopsided wins was against Tennessee State of the FCS, a 1-3 team. Western Kentucky started out with a three-game losing streak (Georgia put up 70 on the Hilltoppers, while IU blanked them 38-0). Arkansas went 0-2 against the only Power opponents it has played (Utah and Georgia), and the Sooners don't look anything like a playoff team.
Why they could be higher: Although Oklahoma wasn't ranked, the Sooners were one of the stingier defenses Georgia has faced, as OU entered the game allowing just 7.7 points per game. Georgia racked up 21 points in the second quarter alone, even while holding out leading running back Nate Frazier, who has injured ribs. The combination of being undefeated and passing the eye test could sway some committee members to vote the Bulldogs ahead of one-loss Ohio State.
Need to know: It's not just September that was manageable for Georgia. The Bulldogs have the easiest remaining schedule in the SEC, according to ESPN Analytics. Georgia avoids Texas, LSU, Tennessee and Texas A&M. It's still the 21st-most difficult remaining schedule in the country, but the committee is also paying attention to which opponents teams don't play from their own leagues, too.
Toughest remaining game: Oct. 10 at Alabama. Georgia only has three true road games remaining (this isn't including the neutral site game against Florida) -- at Alabama, Nov. 7 at Ole Miss and Nov. 21 at South Carolina. Of those three, ESPN's FPI projects the trip to Tuscaloosa will be the most challenging, but still gives the Bulldogs a 58.3% chance to win.
4. Miami Hurricanes (4-0)
Why they could be here: Miami has two road wins against Power 4 opponents, including a cross-country trip to Stanford in the season-opener and another Friday night road win, against Wake Forest. The win against the Deacs looks even better after Wake Forest beat Louisville on Saturday, earning them their second road win against a Power 4 opponent and top 25 consideration. The Canes are oozing talent, and that has translated into more explosive plays than Notre Dame, which is a small differentiating factor at this point. Miami leads the country in percentage of plays over 10 yards while Notre Dame ranks No. 99.
Why they could be lower: Notre Dame's defense will have an edge in the committee meeting room in some areas, as the Irish have been better at stopping designed runs for a loss or no gain, and have more than twice as many TFLs. The Irish have twice as many sacks, and have been more disruptive in the passing game.
Need to know: Miami's schedule ranked No. 92 in the country, while Notre Dame's ranked No. 94. Because they're so close, the selection committee wouldn't rely on that as a separating factor. The emphasis would be what they've seen on film, and if it's backed up by the stats.
Toughest remaining game: Nov. 7 at Notre Dame. This will eventually be settled on the field as it was a year ago, but this time it will be the second straight road game for the Canes after spending Halloween at North Carolina.
5. Notre Dame Fighting Irish (4-0)
Why they could be here: The Irish are now 3-0 against the Big Ten, with double digit wins against Wisconsin, Michigan State and Purdue, and two of their four games have come outside of South Bend. Quarterback CJ Carr is a Heisman hopeful who accounted for four touchdowns against the Boilermakers, and has just one interception this season. Saturday's game at Purdue was a complete effort, as the Irish made game-changing plays in all three phases.
Why they could be higher: Notre Dame's defense continues to show it's one of the best in the country. The group constantly pressured Purdue quarterback Ryan Browne, who at one point in the first half was sacked three times in six snaps.
Need to know: The Irish made it through September undefeated for the first time under coach Marcus Freeman, avoiding any embarrassing upset like it did to NIU (2024), and playing from behind like it did after last year's 0-2 start. That's an important cushion with games against BYU and Miami still looming.
Toughest remaining game: Nov. 7 vs. Miami. The Canes won this game last year, 27-24.
6. Alabama Crimson Tide (4-0)
Why they could be here: With three straight convincing wins against Power 4 opponents, including two against SEC teams, Alabama has quietly put together one of the better September starts. The Sept. 12 road win at Kentucky would carry weight in the committee room after the 3-1 Wildcats won at Texas A&M in Week 3. The true value of a win against 2-2 South Carolina won't be determined until later, but the committee will reward HOW the Tide beat the Gamecocks -- a clean, efficient game with no turnovers, only two incompletions, and four touchdowns from Keelon Russell in the first half.
Why they could be higher: Alabama enters October as one of the most complete teams in the country, ranking in the top 10 in total efficiency, according to ESPN Analytics. About 50 spots separate Alabama's record strength from Indiana's, which would be a discussion point in the room. It's also significantly higher than both Miami and Notre Dame, and is above all three in ESPN's Strength of Record metric.
Need to know: Four of Alabama's next six games are on the road, starting Saturday at upstart Mississippi State.
Toughest remaining game: Oct. 10 vs. Georgia. ESPN's FPI gives the Bulldogs a 58.3% chance to win.
7. Indiana Hoosiers (4-0)
Why they could be here: The selection committee does consider injuries to key players, and would give the Hoosiers credit for finding a way to beat Northwestern at home on Friday after starting running back Turbo Richard left the game with a lower right leg injury in the first half. It was Indiana's defense, though, that was at times a question, along with some off-target throws from quarterback Josh Hoover. And eight penalties was an atypical performance for a Curt Cignetti-coached team.
Why they could be lower: Northwestern was the first Power 4 opponent the Hoosiers have faced this season, and Indiana struggled. The Wildcats were the first team Indiana has beaten with a winning record. Indiana has played four straight home games against unranked teams -- and one of the Hoosiers' wins was against Howard of the FCS -- while other contenders have played tougher teams on the road or at neutral sites.
Need to know: After enjoying home field advantage all month, the Hoosiers will hit the road for three of their next four games, including back-to-back trips to Rutgers and Nebraska before hosting Ohio State at home on Oct. 17 in what will be their biggest game of the regular season.
Toughest remaining game: Oct. 17 vs. Ohio State. The Buckeyes cruised to an expected win against unranked Illinois, but they will have a road test at Iowa on Oct. 3 to help prepare for their trip to Bloomington. Ohio State will have been battle-tested, having traveled to Texas and Iowa, while the Hoosiers will be facing their first ranked opponent of the season.
8. Florida Gators (4-0)
Why they could be here: The selection committee would honor the head-to-head win against Ole Miss, which would still be one of their top-12 teams. The group would also reward the Gators for a road win against Auburn, which is a 3-1 opponent with a season-opening win against Baylor (yes, the committee even considers opponents' opponents). Florida running back Jadan Baugh also catapulted himself into the Heisman conversation with 162 yards and three touchdowns, while the Gators looked like one of the most balanced offenses in the top 12. Florida is also one of the top teams in the country in ESPN's Strength of Record metric.
Why they could be lower: It depends on how far the Rebels fall after the loss, which could be significant considering how poorly the defense has played for most of the month.The committee wouldn't drop the Gators below Ole Miss, but where the Rebels are ultimately ranked reveals how impressed the committee members were with the home win against them.
Need to know: ESPN's FPI gives the Gators at least a 50% chance to win each of its remaining games except two -- Oct. 17 at Texas and Oct. 31 vs. Georgia. Even if the Gators lose both of those games -- especially if they're close -- they'll have a good shot at a CFP bid in coach Jon Sumrall's first season. The committee will continue to honor the head-to-head result over Ole Miss as long as the records are comparable.
Toughest remaining game: Oct. 17 at Texas. It's a true road game right before facing Georgia at Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta, the next-closest thing to a home game for the Bulldogs.
9. Ole Miss Rebels (3-1)
Why they could be here: The Rebels will be stuck behind the Gators because the committee will honor the head-to-head win as long as the records are comparable and they're close in the ranking. The same factor will apply for the Ole Miss win against LSU, keeping the Rebels ahead of the Tigers now that they both have one loss. The Rebels are still a talented team with one of the top quarterbacks in the country in Trinidad Chambliss, and they have two respectable wins against LSU and Louisville. Those wins are still better than what some contenders ranked higher have achieved.
Why they could be lower: The most glaring weakness has been the defense and its inability to stop big plays. It was an issue against Louisville and resurfaced against the Gators. It also didn't help Ole Miss that Louisville lost at home to Wake Forest on Saturday and will likely fall out of the Top 25 this week.
Need to know: The committee considers injuries to key players, and will be aware that starting running back Kewan Lacy missed this game with a shoulder injury, and backup running back JT Lindsey finished with 31 yards on 11 carries. Chambliss injured his left thigh on the second series, but didn't seem limited in the game. The committee doesn't view injuries as an excuse to lose a game, but talks about how they may have impacted the game.
Toughest remaining game: Oct. 24 at Texas. ESPN's FPI gives the Longhorns an 82.9% chance to win. The Rebels also face Georgia on Nov. 7, but will have home field advantage.
10. LSU Tigers (3-1)
Why they could be here: The Tigers avoided a second September loss and kept their playoff hopes alive with Saturday night's convincing win against Texas A&M. It helps LSU that Clemson has won three straight since its season-opening loss to LSU. LSU is stuck behind Florida and Ole Miss in these projections because of the head-to-head results. LSU will stay behind Ole Miss after losing to the Rebels last week in Oxford, and the Tigers don't face Florida during the regular season.The committee has done this before when multiple teams have played each other (including last year in the SEC) and resorted to the head-to-head tiebreaker to help sort the pack.
Why they could be lower: There are former coaches on the selection committee who might point out LSU's struggles with turnovers in the red zone and penalties.
Need to know: Head-to-head results aren't weighted in the room, and this pecking order could change because LSU still has a chance to beat Alabama and Texas -- two teams that are ranked above it. If LSU can find ways to win those games, and Ole Miss has more losses than the Tigers, LSU can continue to climb.
Toughest remaining game: Nov. 14 vs. Texas. The November schedule is backloaded, with three of four games against ranked opponents. The home game against Texas, though, could be a must-win situation if the Rebels can't beat Alabama the week before.
11. BYU Cougars (3-0)
Why they could be here: The Cougars had a bye week, and have created some separation from Texas Tech as the Big 12's top playoff contender, but Utah is quickly closing the gap. The Cougars have had a slight edge offensively over both teams through September, even having played one less game. BYU quarterback Bear Bachmeier has been one of the most efficient in the country, ranking No. 21 in QBR (82.0) with six touchdowns and just one interception. Both Utah and BYU have had fewer turnovers (two) than Texas Tech (eight).
Why they could be lower: BYU has one win against an FCS team, 0-4 Utah Tech, and just one win against a Power 4 opponent, Arizona. Utah has been better defensively, holding its opponents to 10.3 points per game (No. 8 in the country).
Need to know: If BYU loses to Notre Dame and doesn't win the Big 12, it could have a hard time earning a CFP bid as a two-loss runner-up because its only win against a ranked opponent would likely be Nov. 7 at Utah.
Toughest remaining game: Oct. 17 vs. Notre Dame. ESPN's FPI gives the Irish a 73.3% chance to win.
12. Oregon Ducks (3-1)
Why they could be here: An impressive second half on the road against a ranked USC team has the Ducks back in the mix, especially after they did it with backup quarterback Dylan Raiola following a scary injury to starting quarterback Dante Moore. The selection committee would likely still hold the Ducks back for now, though, because of the loss to unranked Oklahoma State. It did help that the Cowboys beat West Virginia on Saturday. The more Oklahoma State wins, the less damaging Oregon's loss to the Cowboys will be in the eyes of the committee.
Why they could be higher: Oregon's road win against previously-undefeated USC is better than BYU's best win, against Arizona.
Need to know: If the playoff were today, Oregon would get bumped out of the bracket on Selection Day to make room for Boise State, which is projected to earn a playoff bid as the committee's highest ranked team from a Group of 6 conference.
Toughest remaining game: Nov. 7 at Ohio State. ESPN's FPI projects the Ducks will win each of their remaining games except against the Buckeyes, who have an 83.4% chance to win.
Bracket
Based on the rankings above, the seeding would be:
First-round byes
No. 1 Texas (SEC champ)
No. 2 Ohio State (Big Ten champ)
No. 3 Georgia
No. 4 Miami (ACC champ)
First-round games
On campus, Dec. 18 and 19
No. 12 Boise State (highest Group of 6) at No. 5 Notre Dame
No. 11 BYU (Big 12 champ) at No. 6 Alabama
No. 10 LSU at No. 7 Indiana
No. 9 Ole Miss at No. 8 Florida
Quarterfinal games
Vrbo Fiesta Bowl on Dec. 30, Chick-fil-A Peach Bowl, Goodyear Cotton Bowl Classic and Rose Bowl Game presented by Prudential on Jan. 1.
No. 12 Boise State/No. 5 Notre Dame winner vs. No. 4 Miami
No. 11 BYU/No. 6 Alabama winner vs. No. 3 Georgia
No. 10 LSU/No. 7 Indiana winner vs. No. 2 Ohio State
No. 9 Ole Miss/No. 8 Florida winner vs. No. 1 Texas