Iranian leaders welcome US midterms, but Trump may still attack

Tehran, Iran – Iranian authorities are painting the sweeping midterm election defeats for United States President Donald Trump’s Republican Party as a repudiation by the American public of the war on Iran.

“Conscience or the cost of living, Americans said NO TO WAR, and we endorse this message,” said Iranian parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, who led the Iranian delegation in talks with Washington that led to the signing of a short-lived memorandum of understanding in June.

“If the US [government] betrays their public will to serve international paymasters and blackmailers, it will learn our NO comes with a Nightmare,” read a post on his X account on Wednesday.

Gholam-Hossein Mohseni-Ejei, the head of the Iranian judiciary, said: “Trump was defeated in both war and politics” and promised that the Islamic republic will impose more defeats.

Analysts said the sweeping victories for Democrats, which complicate the president’s remaining years in office, would only serve to make the leadership of Iran more adamant about their demands for ending the war started by the US and Israel on February 28.

Trump has been talking about the possibility of attacking Iran for weeks, but says he hasn’t made a decision yet, as a US naval blockade, sanctions and trade disruptions are also heavily pressuring the country.

Sanam Vakil, director of the Middle East and North Africa Programme at Chatham House, said the electoral defeat of Trump’s Republican Party will increase pressure to end the Iran war, but it does not rule out further strikes.

“He needs a diplomatic victory or at worst an off-ramp, yet in the face of defeat he may be reluctant to appear weak,” she told Al Jazeera.

Hamidreza Azizi, senior Iran analyst at the International Crisis Group, said the sense of victory being displayed by Iranian decision-makers will likely make them more uncompromising on core demands. Those include seven conditions set for the partial reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, as well as a requirement for the US to take the first step.

“The likelihood of Iran making concessions on the nuclear issue could also become even lower than before,” he told Al Jazeera.

‘Myth of American invincibility’

Wednesday marked the anniversary of the 1979 seizure of the US embassy in Tehran by Iranian students, triggering a hostage crisis that set the tone for relations in the decades since.

In Tehran, the authorities organised demonstrations and speeches around the embassy building and other downtown areas to denounce US-led “global arrogance”.

State-organised marches and events were also held in Bandar Abbas, Mashhad, Qom and numerous other cities. State television also showed pro-government events for schoolchildren.

A statement attributed to Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei was released to mark the day.

“Now, the stage of the Persian Gulf, especially the Strait of Hormuz, has invalidated the myth of American invincibility,” read the statement from Khamenei, who has not been seen or heard publicly since becoming supreme leader in early March following the killing of his father.

He asserted that some still harbour hope that partisan changes in the US or granting concessions to Washington would stop their “enmity” towards Iran, but “they are harshly mistaken”.

Khamenei said the only way to attain “absolute deterrence” was to pursue strength.

In Tehran’s Enghelab Square, a giant billboard depicting Trump behind prison bars was unveiled on Tuesday. “We will kill Trump,” read the accompanying message.

State-linked media also closely followed the US elections, and cheered for some of the bigger losses for hawkish Republicans.

“Trump’s nightmare,” read the reformist Sazandegi newspaper’s headline on Wednesday, accompanied by a full-page picture of Abdul El-Sayed, who has become the first Muslim senator after winning his race in Michigan, and attacked the pro-Israel AIPAC lobby – which had spent tens of millions of dollars against him – in his victory speech.

What comes next?

Iran and the US continue to fight over control in and around the Strait of Hormuz, while the Trump administration also counts on changing the behaviour of Iran’s authorities through imposing a blockade and economic pressure on 90 million Iranians.

Chatham House’s Vakil said she expects intensified diplomacy alongside continued military threats over the coming weeks, with limited military strikes still a possibility.

“An interim agreement over the Strait of Hormuz and the lifting of the blockade appears more realistic than a comprehensive settlement,” she said.

Barbara Slavin, a distinguished fellow at the Stimson Center in Washington, said she was concerned the US president would use the “lame duck” period of his presidency to attack Iran again.

“Trump still retains enormous powers as commander-in-chief, especially before the new Congress is seated,” she told Al Jazeera, adding that the magnitude of the Democratic victory has made all-out war less likely, in her view.

“It is clear that the war and the resulting economic crisis defeated the Republicans,” she said.