Iran-backed Houthis seize strategic Mayun Island: Can they hold it?

Houthi forces have taken control of the island of Mayun – also known as Perim – tightening their grip on the eastern coast of the Red Sea and giving the group a strategic foothold in the Bab al-Mandeb Strait.

The takeover was confirmed on Friday by a senior military official of Yemen’s internationally recognised government and a Houthi official, according to The Associated Press news agency.

Analysts say the seizure represents a significant military advance that, if the Houthis can consolidate, could reshape their conflict with Saudi-backed forces in Yemen while benefiting their backer Iran in its broader regional struggle.

Here is what we know about the island’s seizure, whether the Houthis can consolidate control and what it means for Yemen and beyond.

Why is Mayun Island important?

Mayun Island is a 13sq km (five square mile) volcanic island in the heart of the Bab al-Mandeb Strait, the narrow southern corridor at the entrance to the Red Sea.

In 2021, the Saudi-led coalition fighting the Houthis said it had a presence on the island, after reports emerged of a UAE-linked airbase being built there. The UAE ended its involvement in the Yemen conflict at the end of last year and withdrew troops, but the status of the airbase on Mayun Island is unclear.

By controlling the island, which splits Bab al-Mandeb into two channels, the Houthis now have a physical outpost in the strait.

The Bab al-Mandeb Strait is crucial to global shipping as it is the southern entrance to the Red Sea with the Suez Canal at its northern end. The strait has become even more important to shipping since the closure of the Strait of Hormuz in the Gulf on the other side of the Arabian Peninsula by the US-Israel war on Iran in March.

The Houthis also control the areas surrounding the strait, including the island of Hanish and the entire Red Sea coastline of Yemen, reported Al Jazeera’s correspondent in Yemen, Yousef Mawry, on Saturday. Houthi forces seized the port city of Mocha on Thursday.

Wolfgang Pusztai, a security, policy and defence analyst, said the Houthis’ advance and seizure of the whole of Yemen’s Red Sea coast means the group now “has the real capability to shut down any maritime traffic through Bab al-Mandeb if they want to”.

That gives the rebel group a major advantage in its battle in Yemen against Saudi-backed government forces, their primary target. It also benefits the Houthis’ ally, Iran, in its conflict with the US by giving Tehran new leverage over another global chokepoint and making its own blockade of the Strait of Hormuz “even more efficient”, Pusztai told Al Jazeera.

Farea Al-Muslimi, a research fellow at Chatham House’s Middle East and North Africa programme, said the development serves both the Houthis’ “domestic” aims as well as Iran’s negotiating position with the US and the world “on other files, not just Yemen”.

What does it mean for shipping in the Bab al-Mandeb Strait?

The Houthis have said that general shipping in the Red Sea and Bab al-Mandeb is safe from attacks, except for vessels linked to Saudi Arabia, which they will blockade.

Houthi military spokesman Yahya Saree said the group would continue what his statement called a “siege for siege” and “escalation for escalation” strategy against Saudi Arabia, which has blockaded Houthi-held areas of Yemen.

However, the Houthis have previously targeted vessels with no links to Saudi Arabia in regional waters.

Between November 2023 and mid-2025, the Houthis attacked more than 100 commercial ships in the Red Sea. The Houthis said the attacks were against vessels linked to Israel or its allies, in a campaign of solidarity with Palestinians in Gaza. However, some attacks targeted vessels that appeared to have no such links, according to shipping sources cited by Reuters and BBC Verify, the BBC’s fact-checking team.

If the Houthis again expand their targets beyond Saudi vessels, their new positions could make it easier for them to strike passing ships.

The Houthis would “be able to use shorter-range missiles rather than long-range artillery to attack the ships,” said Pusztai. “This makes it a very risky endeavour to pass through the strait if the Houthis don’t allow it.”

Any further disruption on Red Sea shipping would have immense repercussions on an already strained global energy market, said economist Javed Hassan.

“War-risk insurance and charter rates can rise before cargoes are formally interrupted, and the resulting pressure extends beyond oil into container shipping, dry bulk and the wider cost of traded goods,” Hassan told Al Jazeera. “The technical supply shock from Houthi attacks therefore becomes an inflationary shock through several commodities at once.”

Can the Houthis hold on to the island?

That will depend on how much effort Saudi-backed Yemeni government forces, which reportedly quickly withdrew as the Houthis advanced on it, put into recapturing the island, said Andreas Krieg, associate professor at King’s College London.

The Houthis are in a strong position to hold the island in the short term due to their control of surrounding areas, Krieg told Al Jazeera. However, “the island itself is difficult to defend against an amphibious assault in the long run” though such an assault “would be a high-risk operation as well”.

“The key will be to hold the coastal areas of the mainland and its hinterland,” added Krieg.

Farea Al-Muslimi, a research fellow at the Middle East and North Africa programme at Chatham House, said the Houthis’ rapid push across the Red Sea coast and onto Perim Island was not surprising.

He cited poor coordination and weak armament among government forces, despite a yearlong Saudi-backed effort to consolidate them into an effective fighting force and an effective years-long military build-up by the Houthis.

Speaking to reporters during his visit to Ireland, US President Donald Trump said the Houthis had asked the US not to intervene in the conflict against Yemen’s internationally recognised government.

He said the Houthis “called us”. “They don’t want to fight us, they let us know,” Trump said.

“They ⁠⁠would much prefer not having us involved and they’re letting most ships go through. There’s just one country ‌‌that they’re not too happy with and we’ll get that straightened out.”

Trump added that Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman is a “good friend” and “everything will work out fine”.