Georgia midterm elections: Why this is a key US battleground

Georgia is among a number of key “swing” or “battleground” states being fought for hardest in the run-up to the United States midterm elections next week.

The southern state has been so competitive in recent federal election cycles that its three most recent Senate matchups went to runoffs.

Both the Republican and the Democratic parties have spent considerable time and resources trying to win the state during the closing stretch of their campaigns.

US President Donald Trump and former US President Barack Obama both held rallies in Georgia this week, as the parties present their closing messages ahead of next week’s vote.

Why is Georgia such a key state for the midterms?

Georgia is a major focus for Trump, and he has campaigned twice in Dalton, Georgia, in the past two weeks.

The state is a source of personal grievance for the president, primarily because it was where he disputed his preelection loss in 2020.

Trump refused to concede to Joe Biden following his defeat but failed to overturn the results in several states, including Georgia.

In January, Trump urged a Georgia official to recalculate the state’s presidential election results in his favour. Trump said “I just want to find 11,780 votes, which is one more than we have”.

In 2023, Trump and others were charged with attempting to overturn the 2020 US election loss in Georgia. That case was dismissed “in its entirety” after Trump was returned to office.

During his re-election campaign in 2024, Trump revived unfounded claims that his loss in 2020 was the result of “massive fraud”, despite audits which upheld Biden’s win.

In 2024, Georgia voted for Trump by a 2.2 percentage point margin. It was the 28th largest margin for Trump among the 50 states, leaving the state as one which could go either way this time, observers say.

What does polling in Georgia show?

Georgia will be voting for its Governor, one senator and its House representatives.

For the Senate, incumbent Democrat Jon Ossoff has a solid lead of 52.6 percent to Republican Mike Collins’ 42.4 percent, according to MS NOW polling averages.

Polls indicate a tight Governor’s race, however. Democrat Keisha Lance Bottoms is up against Republican Rick Jackson. They are running to succeed Republican Brian Kemp, who cannot seek a third term.

Voters will also be choosing representatives for Georgia’s 14 congressional districts as well as Lieutenant Governor, Attorney General and Secretary of State. Of the 14 representatives Georgia sends to Congress, nine are currently Republican, while five are Democratic.

Who are the key contenders for the Senate?

Incumbent Ossoff is seeking a second term as a Georgia senator. He won his seat in 2021, narrowly defeating Republican Senator David Perdue in a run-off. He was the youngest Democrat elected to the Senate in almost four decades and Georgia’s first Jewish senator.

He is campaigning on affordability, healthcare and government accountability.

Ossoff has accused Trump and his allies of corruption and conflicts of interest in many of his rallies.

Corruption was also a theme for Obama during his rally in Georgia on Wednesday, in which he said Trump was “very much focused on enriching himself and his family and his cronies”.

“The guy has made billions of dollars while in office. We have never seen a president so intent on selling favours like this,” he said, echoing a speech he made days earlier in Michigan, another swing state.

Ossoff’s Republican rival won his nomination in June in a run-off. Collins is campaigning on Trump’s agenda, immigration enforcement and smaller government.

During his last-minute rallies ahead of next week’s midterms, Trump has repeatedly said he will reward states that vote for him.

Trump told Collins he can call him whenever he wants help for his state. But he warned that if Georgia reelects Ossoff, it could be another story.

Trump acted out a hypothetical scenario at his rally where Ossoff called to ask for money for his state, with Trump responding, “I don’t give a damn what he wants.”

NBC, which carries out its own polling, has forecast Georgia as “Likely Democratic”.

Who are the key contenders for governor?

NBC polling points to a potential “toss-up” between the Democratic and Republican parties.

Former Atlanta mayor Keisha Lance Bottoms, the Democratic contender, is campaigning on affordability, healthcare access, education funding, and environmental regulation. Her campaign says she aims to “deliver for working families and bring steady leadership to Georgia in the midst of uncertainty and chaos coming from Washington”.

If she wins, she would become the first black woman elected governor in the US.

Bottoms is up against 72-year-old billionaire Rick Jackson, who has accused her of failing to deal with crime during her tenure as Atlanta mayor.

Jackson has spent more than $200m of his own money on advertisements featuring demonstrations and violence in Atlanta following the killing of Rayshard Brooks, an unarmed black man, by a white Atlanta police officer in 2020. The killing happened while Bottoms was Atlanta mayor.

Americans have been voting for weeks, with 40 million ballots already cast, according to the University of Florida’s election lab. A total of 45.9 million Americans voted early in the last midterm elections in 2022.