Can the US ban Iranian airlines worldwide – and what would it mean?

United States Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has announced that all Iranian airlines could in effect be shut out of international operations from Wednesday as he warned companies against providing services to the country’s carriers.

“On September 23, all the Iranian airlines will be shut down around the world,” Bessent said on Monday.

He warned that the sanctions are not only aimed at airlines but also at the operations chain. “If they land, you cannot provide them with fuel, you cannot provide them with landing services, you cannot sell them tickets or you will be knocked out of the dollar system,” he said.

The announcement marked a step up in US President Donald Trump’s “Operation Economic Outcast” to squeeze Tehran’s already battered economy.

So how can the US ground Iranian airlines? And what does it mean for millions of travellers in the Middle East?

Where do major Iranian airlines stand today?

Iran’s civil aviation sector has aged and fallen increasingly behind global standards due to decades-long US sanctions.

On September 8, the US sanctioned all of the country’s 27 carriers, which Washington has said “the regime uses to move weapons, personnel and illicit cargo.”

The principal carriers operating outside Iran are Mahan Air, state-owned Iran Air and Qeshm Air. Smaller airlines also serve regional destinations.

Mahan Air, the country’s most popular carrier, suspended flights to and from Istanbul and Ankara and between Tehran and Muscat late last week after the US sanctioned 36 foreign companies for “supporting Iran’s aviation sector” as a warning.

That warning has now become de facto US policy, starting on Wednesday, Bessent said.

Mahan Air has the broadest international network among Iranian carriers. It flies to destinations in China, India, Iraq, Pakistan, Thailand and the United Arab Emirates in addition to now-suspended services to Turkiye and Oman.

Iran Air, the national flag carrier, once had an extensive European network that has in effect disappeared due to sanctions, fleet constraints and disruptions caused by the US-Israel war on Iran. Current route data showed just three international destinations: Najaf and Baghdad in Iraq and Istanbul.

Taher Abdolhai, Iran Air’s chief executive, said in an interview with the Iranian news site SehatKhabar that the economic pressure on the country’s aviation sector was spreading “like metastasising cancer”.

Abdolhai said at least 30 aircraft belonging to different carriers have been damaged in US attacks during the war.

Qeshm Air also remains a significant regional operator with international destinations that include Turkiye, Iraq, the UAE and Germany.

What countries and airports will be affected?

Since the US and Israel began attacking Iran in late February, international carriers have mostly stayed away from Tehran with patchy flights in between.

In 2025, Iran’s Civil Aviation Organization said 46.2 million passengers flew in and out of Iran with 11.2 million taking international flights. Of those international travellers, nearly 7.2 million flew with Iranian carriers while the rest flew with foreign carriers.

Aviation data analysis firm Cirium noted that for September, just under 70,000 weekly seats on departing international flights were scheduled.

Compared with 2025, Iran’s international capacity in August was down by 49 percent, driven by the total absence of players such as Flydubai and Turkish Airlines, which last year operated a combined 20,000 weekly departing seats.

The airports most directly affected, therefore, would be the foreign airports receiving Iranian carriers, particularly Istanbul, Najaf, Baghdad, Dubai, New Delhi, Lahore, Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, Shenzhen and Phuket.

The impact would extend beyond those airports to where Iranian airlines depend on local refuelling, overlays, ground handling and ticket-sales infrastructure.

Since the US cannot shut down foreign airspace to Iranian carriers, punishing those who support the operations would damage the hobbled sector for Tehran, experts told Al Jazeera.

Will other countries bow to US threats?

Saj Ahmad, chief analyst at StrategicAero Research, said tourism and travel to Iraq from Iran are significant for both countries. And given their close links, Ahmad said: “Iraq will seek an exemption from the US to facilitate that travel as it generates a lot of money for their economy in terms of tourism and hotel stays.”

Similarly, Ahmad told Al Jazeera: “Pakistan, which shares a huge border with Iran, is unlikely to cave in to US demands, given their trade and cultural links.”

“China too will baulk at any demands the US makes on them while China provides Iran with political and economic support like Russia. Those two countries will broadly ignore the US demands,” he added.

Beijing has called the US measures “illegal”.

“China consistently opposes illegal unilateral sanctions that lack a basis in international law or authorisation from the UN Security Council,” Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs spokesman Guo Jiakun said on Tuesday.

Turkiye, Ahmad said, would “likely resist demands to ban Iranian airlines and services because of the economic and tourism commerce that exists”, leading to “pushbacks behind the scenes”.

“The UAE may opt to follow the US lead, given that the country has recently stated it was halting trade with Iran,” the analyst said.

Iran would also not be a bystander, analysts warned. For starters, Tehran could close its airspace to foreign carriers.

While most non-Iranian carriers have stayed away from Iran’s airspace since the war started, a few like Flydubai have started using parts of eastern Iranian airspace to reduce flight times.

What about Iranian travellers?

Nader Habibi, an Iranian American economist, told Al Jazeera that the “new US sanctions are very comprehensive because of the threat to any airport that offers services to flights going or coming from Iran.”

Habibi said they could affect “most of the operations all around the world” and added that he expected only China and Russia to resist.

“The airline prices are already increasing, and the increase in the recent couple of weeks has been substantial,” going up to 100 percent in some cases, he said.

“This rapid increase in costs is going to be a major burden for many travellers amid recent severe economic decline in Iran and the devaluation of the Iranian currency, due to which household income has declined up to 30 percent in recent months,” he said.

Ahmad from StrategicAero Research noted that for the Iranian airlines, “it’s likely the cost escalation will hike fares, depending on oil and fuel pricing or whether they can absorb costs.”

The analyst noted that a majority of Iranian travellers are already “adept at using a plethora of non-Iranian airlines” and there was no immediate clarity if non-Iranian carriers would also be sanctioned for flying to Iran.

To Mazen Sammak, an aviation consultant based in Lebanon, that’s a big game-changing question.

“The demand would go higher and so will prices on these foreign carriers, but it would at least be a relief from sanctions,” he said. “Without them, it is a completely different story.”

Amid worsening restrictions, Iranians would naturally look for alternative options, Sammak told Al Jazeera.

“Travel cannot stop, so they would either go by sea or land, into [neighbouring countries like] Turkiye, Iraq, Armenia or Pakistan, depending on their needs,” he said.

“But the cost would shoot up with moving to hubs and connections, and the hustle will increase,” Sammak said, adding that the disruptions would also benefit regional hubs like Istanbul, Doha, Muscat and Dubai. Meanwhile, Iranian carriers and airports could be out of options.

For Iranian carriers, which already fly old planes, the maintenance of the existing fleet would become more difficult. Ahmad said such disruptions could immediately ground a third of the operational Iranian fleet.

What does ‘knocked out of dollar system’ mean?

In his latest remarks, Bessent warned that any company supporting Iran’s aviation sector through any operations would be “knocked out of the dollar system”.

In simple terms, it means any company assisting sanctioned Iranian airlines could face US sanctions that restrict its access to the US financial system and dollar transactions. These companies could be airport operators, fuel suppliers, ground handlers and ticketing companies.

Washington could restrict a service provider’s access to the US financial system, which is central to international commerce.

That’s in line with decades of sanctions targeting Tehran. Previous sanctions have contributed to making Iranians poorer by triggering a currency collapse and leading to surging food and medicine prices.

They have financially isolated Iranians through blocked bank transfers and digital exclusion through restricted software, cloud services and platforms. A US travel ban, which has made Iran among its primary targets, has dashed countless dreams.

This month, the Trump administration expanded secondary sanctions in five more key economic sectors impacting civilian life: digital assets, gold, shipping, technology and aviation. Those sectors were added to a list that includes financial sectors, construction and manufacturing.