It's midseason awards time. I'm here to hand out my ballot for the first half of the 2026 NFL season. And in a year that has felt dominated by parity and very few players or teams separating from the pack, it wasn't easy to pick favorites. There are multiple legitimate contenders to win every single award through nine weeks, running all the way from Most Valuable Player (where I counted six players who had a legitimate argument) to Comeback Player of the Year (where three future Hall of Famers came back from season-ending injuries and immediately looked like their old selves).
As always, these are my picks for who I feel should win each of these awards after the first half of the season as opposed to predictions for who the voters are likely to actually select by the end of the year. I place a priority on availability, so players who have sat out more than a game or so because of injury will find it difficult to compete with players who have answered the call each and every weekend. And naturally, I'm using healthy amounts of data and what I've seen watching All-22 film every week to inform my choices here.
Let's begin with the rookies before wrapping with my MVP rankings and my midseason All-Pro team.
Jump to an award:
DROY | OROY | Coach of the Year
Comeback Player of the Year
Protector of the Year
DPOY | OPOY | MVP | All-Pro roster
Defensive Rookie of the Year
My top pick five weeks ago: Arvell Reese
After the offense-heavy draft classes in 2024 and 2025, this has been a very fun crop of defensive rookies, driven by the players at the very top. There were no sure things, but we're seeing a lot of players who had questions about their fit in a defense or as every-down options thrive. The 49ers and Chiefs first-year defenders in particular have been exciting to watch, although Mansoor Delane's shoulder injury has kept the top-drafted cornerback in the class from getting on the field often enough to compete for this award, while defensive tackle Gracen Halton sustained a season-ending broken ankle for the 49ers.
I was left with five contenders for three spots. Jacob Rodriguez has been ever present at linebacker for the Dolphins and has been a very good run defender while wearing the green dot for Miami as a rookie. The Bengals were able to isolate Rodriguez in coverage for a couple of touchdowns earlier this season, but he has generally had the athleticism to compete there against running backs and tight ends.
And though Brandon Cisse's season got off to a tough start against Justin Jefferson, the Packers cornerback has improved. He has been surprisingly impactful along the line of scrimmage, creating problems as a blitzer and making quick reads and sure tackles on screens. He has been one of the biggest reasons why the Packers -- whose outside cornerbacks struggled last season -- have been able to withstand the absence of Micah Parsons.
3. Sonny Styles, LB, Washington Commanders
Of course, I have to start any conversation about Styles by mentioning what might have been one of the single most impressive highlights I saw from any player in the first half of the season -- when he obliterated Saquon Barkley in pass protection. It hasn't been an isolated moment for the Commanders linebacker, either, as we're repeatedly seeing his physicality and athleticism impact blockers and draw eyes in pass protection.
He has also been a quick study in coverage over the middle of the field, showing a real comfort with understanding route distributions and passing receivers off to avoid creating the voids that offenses try to exploit. It has been a frustrating season for the Commanders, but Styles looks as if he's going to be an essential part of the defense moving forward.
2. David Bailey, Edge, New York Jets
Bailey is long and athletic, and we saw those traits last week, when it very briefly appeared that he had injured Patrick Mahomes. Bailey terrorized Chiefs tackle Jaylon Moore for two strip sacks in a four-play span, and he's tied with Fred Warner for a league-leading five strip sacks so far this season.
Bailey has 7.5 sacks overall, 12 quarterback hits and 10 tackles for loss. Some of those numbers are a little inflated; Bailey got his first career sack in the opener against the Titans on a play on which he didn't touch Cam Ward as the quarterback ran out of bounds, then another as Jordan Love slid in front of the rookie edge rusher. But don't let that mask his impact on a down-by-down basis. Bailey is second among all players with a 20.6% pressure rate and 20th in quick pressure rate at 5.7%. Teams haven't doubled Bailey very often, but that's going to change in the second half. He's already one of the league's most unstoppable pass rushers.
1. Arvell Reese, LB/Edge, New York Giants
Picking between Bailey and Reese is unfair. I leaned Reese if only because he has been two impactful players in one this season. As an off-ball linebacker, Reese has been all over the place for a Giants team that has been better against the run this season, even after trading Dexter Lawrence II. Reese has made tackles on 15.3% of his snaps, the eighth-highest rate in the league. He has given up an 81.3 passer rating in coverage, a very credible number for a veteran linebacker, let alone a rookie just getting his feet wet at this level.
And then there's Reese's side quest as a devastating force on blitzes. Despite rushing the quarterback only about 11 times per game, Reese already has 4.5 sacks and 14 pressures. His 10.2% quick pressure rate would be the second-best mark in the NFL if he qualified. And the average Reese pressure comes after 2.44 seconds, the fifth fastest among players with 10 pressures or more.
The Giants are already building pass-rush packages around Reese, like when they isolated him against Eagles guard Landon Dickerson last week, with one of the league's highest-paid interior linemen struggling to even slow down Reese on one of his three sacks. Philly decided to leave Reese completely unblocked for another. Reese was also the best player on the field earlier this season in a win over the Cardinals, making the difference in swinging a close game New York's way.
Reese vs. Bailey is going to be a conversation in bars around New York and New Jersey for a long time.
Offensive Rookie of the Year
My top pick five weeks ago: Denzel Boston
All you need to know about the offensive side, meanwhile, is that Fernando Mendoza instantly became the betting favorite to take home this hardware after the Kirk Cousins trade Tuesday afternoon. There are plenty of rookies who have flashed with a nice week or two, but very few have sustained a significant level of play over the first half. As a result, my feelings here head in a somewhat surprising direction at the top.
3. Carnell Tate, WR, Tennessee Titans
Sitting out last week's game against the Bengals (and the high-scoring 43-36 result that ensued) probably hurt Tate's chances of climbing to the top of the award ballot at midseason, but after a slow start, the Ohio State product is settling in as the focal point of the Titans' passing game. He leads all rookies in averaging 2.2 yards per route run, which is right in line what Justin Jefferson (2.2) and Tetairoa McMillan (2.1) are averaging this season. And though Tate has only one touchdown, Cam Ward has missed him at least two other scores.
2. Denzel Boston, WR, Cleveland Browns
Boston leads all rookies with 507 receiving yards, which owes in part to the fact that he has run 301 routes, the seventh most of any player in the NFL. Boston has been the big-play provider for the Browns, with his three catches of 50 or more yards tied with Christian Watson of the Packers for the most in the league. His 55-yard touchdown against the Bucs was the best of the bunch, with Boston breaking three tackles in two seconds after catching the ball before running from the rest of the secondary.
1. Kahlil Benson, OT, Kansas City Chiefs
Yes, my Offensive Rookie of the Year through nine weeks is an undrafted free agent -- and a lineman. Benson was unexpectedly thrust into the lineup with Josh Simmons unavailable to start the season, and though the Chiefs could have moved Jaylon Moore to the left side, they elected to give the 24-year-old the job of protecting Patrick Mahomes' blindside. Two years after trying that with Kingsley Suamataia and having that decision quickly go south (and eventually destroy the Chiefs season), it's fair to say that there was some skepticism that the Chiefs were making the right call.
Instead, Benson has looked as if he belongs. He has given up only two sacks and five quick pressures across eight games at left tackle, above-average numbers for a team that throws the ball as often as the Chiefs. Benson has been one-on-one on nearly 84% of his dropbacks, which is less often than Simmons (87%) was a season ago but still enough for the Chiefs to run their offense without needing to hide their left tackle. The Chiefs are also averaging 6.3 yards per carry on runs to the outside on the left side, the second-best mark in the league.
Benson was better in his first four games than he was in the four that followed, with the Seahawks pass rush giving him trouble in Seattle's 20-3 victory over the Chiefs. I would expect that Simmons ends up as the starter if he does return at some point this season, but Benson has done enough to earn the job on the right side when Moore's contract expires after the season. And though I'd also expect someone else to pull away in the second half, he's my Offensive Rookie of the Year through two months.
Coach of the Year
My top pick five weeks ago: Klint Kubiak
My perpetual disclaimers apply here. Coaches who are consistently great should be better contenders for this award than first-time coaches who make a bad team decent, even if the latter group is 10 times more likely to win the award. And I lean toward coaches whose team success aligns with their coaching background. Should Kevin O'Connell, who oversees a moribund Minnesota offense, be a Coach of the Year contender when the Vikings are 6-2 because of their defense? Not in my opinion.
3. Ben Johnson, Chicago Bears
Johnson's offense is appointment viewing on a weekly basis. Even with an inconsistent run game, few coaches are better at creating and attacking space with their passing game. Caleb Williams has leveled up as a passer this season, but Johnson does fantastic work to create natural route progressions and throwing lanes. Nobody has put together a more impressive game plan against the Mike Macdonald's Seahawks defense than Johnson did last month. Coaxing a great game out of Case Keenum against the Eagles only adds to Johnson's case.
2. Liam Coen, Jacksonville Jaguars
The Jaguars rank in the top five in both scoring offense and defense, a testament to both Coen and defensive coordinator Anthony Campanile's work. The Jags show up each week with game plans that consistently find and exploit the weak points of their opposition. Coen has built a reliable run game despite injuries up front, which is why he's a spot ahead of Johnson, and he has also managed to reel in and get the most out of a quarterback, Trevor Lawrence, who was prone to putting the ball in danger too often. Convincing Coen to change his mind and leave the Buccaneers to join the Jaguars might be the best decision the franchise has made in a decade.
1. Kyle Shanahan, San Francisco 49ers
He's doing it with you and me at receiver. Shanahan's offense has managed to survive injuries to virtually every one of its playmakers during the first half of the season, which speaks to both Brock Purdy's play and the heater Shanahan has been on as a playcaller. A run game that wasn't very efficient last season has been revitalized with even more pre-snap motion, relying on fullback Kyle Juszczyk and tight end George Kittle to get the 49ers into favorable angles up front. Shanahan has great players, but he was getting more out of Mike Evans than Coen did two years ago before the future Hall of Famer went down. It has been a wildly impressive first half for Shanahan and the 49ers.
Comeback Player of the Year
My top pick five weeks ago: Patrick Mahomes
Usually, this award has one obvious contender running well ahead of the pack. This is the rare season when there are multiple true inner-circle superstars who have come back from serious injuries without skipping a beat.
3. George Kittle, TE, San Francisco 49ers
History tells us that tight ends fade rapidly in their early 30s. That goes double for inline tight ends who are physical blockers and triple for players coming off serious injuries. Kittle is 33, the best blocking tight end in the league and tore his Achilles in the playoffs. I wasn't sure whether we were going to see the peak version of Kittle ever again, let alone to start the 2026 season.
And yet, Kittle is third among all tight ends in yards per route run so far this season, averaging 2.6. He's just behind first-place Brock Bowers, who would also be a realistic contender to win this award most years but doesn't even place in the top three. Kittle has been a valuable blocker for the 49ers in the run game and is on pace for a 1,026-receiving yard, 11-touchdown season. The only other tight ends to do that after turning 32 are Tony Gonzalez, Travis Kelce and Pete Retzlaff, who did it in 1965. And none of those guys were nine months removed from tearing their Achilles!
2. Fred Warner, LB, San Francisco 49ers
As good as Kittle has been, Warner has been even better. I'll save my detailed analysis on him for the Defensive Player of the Year conversation, but Warner has come back from a dislocated ankle to immediately restore his status as the league's best linebacker by a considerable margin. Here's a teaser: Warner has forced five fumbles through eight games, a stunning total for a player who doesn't primarily rush the quarterback in an era in which fumbles are a fraction of where they were in past decades. It's a joy to watch him play without missing a beat.
1. Patrick Mahomes, QB, Kansas City Chiefs
And there's Mahomes, who does everything short of sneak forward for the Chiefs. The concerns about Mahomes losing some ability to scramble or extend plays after tearing his ACL fell by the wayside quickly after his Week 1 return against the Broncos. Though Kenneth Walker III has made life easier for the legendary quarterback, Mahomes has immediately returned to form as a passer, with his 7.7 yards per attempt being the most he has averaged since his last MVP campaign in 2022. He's sixth in adjusted net yards per attempt and seventh in yards per dropback, so while he's probably not in the thick of the MVP discussion, Mahomes looks like Patrick Mahomes. That's an incredibly high bar to hit immediately after tearing your ACL at the end of the 2025 season.
Protector of the Year
My top pick five weeks ago: Trent Williams
Given how new this award is, I'm still trying to find the right approach for how to compare interior linemen with tackles. My instinct is to lean toward the latter given that they're on an island as pass blockers more often and get paid more as a result, but it also feels like a shame to dismiss some of the league's best players just because they play guard or center when this award is designed to also highlight them.
3. Zach Frazier, C, Pittsburgh Steelers
With Creed Humphrey's problems snapping the football becoming more conspicuous, Frazier has emerged for me as the best center in football. The Steelers have quietly fielded one of the league's most efficient run games this season, and so much of that is what Frazier is able to do as the pivot. Watch here, as he reaches and manhandles Browns linebacker Carson Schwesinger to spring Jaylen Warren for a 24-yard gain. Frazier has also given up only one sack and four quick pressures all season, per NFL Next Gen Stats.
2. Amarius Mims, OT, Cincinnati Bengals
Let's stick in the AFC North for another emerging star, as Mims and Darnell Wright of the Bears are two of the standouts competing to take over for the retired Lane Johnson as the best right tackle in the NFL. Mims' calling card is simple: He blocks everyone he faces and keeps them blocked. He has given up only 11 pressures on 319 dropbacks, with the resulting 0.4% pressure rate ranking best among tackles this season. Playing for a quarterback who wants to get the ball out fast in Joe Burrow helps, but Mims has also been left on an island 88.1% of the time this season, which is also the highest rate for any tackle in the league.
1. Trent Williams, OT, San Francisco 49ers
It's just difficult to deny the legendary 49ers left tackle. Williams continues to set the standard on the blindside, giving up only three quick pressures through eight games. He's a better run blocker than Mims, with fleet feet to get to the second level, quick power to seal off blocks after getting there and an aura as one of the most athletically intimidating players in football. You can see defensive backs question their life decisions when Williams gets out on the edge on pin/pull concepts and looks as if he's about to lawn dart them into the Gatorade coolers.
Defensive Player of the Year
My top pick five weeks ago: Will Anderson Jr.
This is usually the most difficult award to decide, given that there are so many contenders who are relatively close to one another in terms of production. This season, there are two players who have separated from the pack in their own tier.
There's a whole second tier of players who were competing for third place, though, which was a knottier problem for me to solve. There are a bunch of very good defensive linemen carrying their teams' pass rush at a high level, including Chase Young, Quinnen Williams and Greg Rousseau. Dexter Lawrence II has been a difference-maker in key spots for the Bengals on the interior, but there's still the mysterious thing happening where the league's best pure nose tackle is somehow part of a below-average run defense, with the Bengals struggling badly against the run after a hot two-week start to the season.
I don't think I'll ever get sick of watching safety Kyle Hamilton make absurd plays at all three levels of the defense. And then the Vikings have a handful of contenders, with linebacker Blake Cashman and edge rusher Dallas Turner as the two leads. The fact that Turner gets chipped or double-teamed less often than literally any other starting edge rusher in the NFL speaks to how good coordinator Brian Flores has been at creating favorable rush opportunities for him, although Turner has obviously held his own even given those circumstances.
3. Aidan Hutchinson, Edge, Detroit Lions
Though the Lions haven't been great on defense this season, the idea of what they would look like without Hutchinson would lead their fans to shudder. This team started replacement-level defensive backs throughout their lineup before Brian Branch's return. For the second season in a row, the edge rusher across from Hutchinson (DJ Wonnum) is having a career year because Hutchinson gets double-teamed at the highest rate of any edge rusher in the NFL (12.7%).
And Hutchinson simply keeps creating havoc up front. His 46 pressures lead all defenders so far this season. He has 13 quick pressures and 16 quarterback hits. And he virtually never comes off the field, playing 90% of the defensive snaps for the Lions. Unsurprisingly, the Lions rank last in the NFL in defensive EPA per play, opponent QBR and pressure rate during those rare times when Hutchinson is getting a breather. I'm not sure any defender in the league is more load-bearing at the moment.
2. Fred Warner, LB, San Francisco 49ers
I mentioned the five forced fumbles earlier, which is something we aren't supposed to see from off-ball linebackers. Those are the biggest plays Warner has made, but the future Hall of Famer has just been spectacularly efficient on a down-to-down basis. He has made tackles on 20% of running plays, the second-best rate among starting linebackers.
And then, of course, there's no better linebacker in pass coverage in the league. Warner does a better job of taking away potential throws than any other linebacker, both by reading what quarterbacks are hoping to do and by running with potential receivers in coverage. His play somehow has not slipped after he dislocated his ankle a year ago. The 49ers are the league's second-best defense by QBR against play-action throws to the middle, where teams are trying to move linebackers and throw behind them for big gains. Warner is the reason why those throws aren't working.
1. Will Anderson Jr., Edge, Houston Texans
Warner makes everything look smooth for the 49ers. Anderson does the opposite for the Texans.
He's the best pass rusher in football at the moment, and though there are so many talented players around the NFL, I think a majority of people who watch the league closely each week would choose Anderson without needing to give it much thought.
Anderson leads the league with 9.5 sacks in eight games. He has 17 hits and 12 tackles for loss. He's also fourth in quick pressures despite being chipped or double-teamed more often than the three other players ahead of him on that list. Anderson leads the league with 11 sacks created for himself or his teammates, three full sacks ahead of anyone else. And just for fun, as if all of this wasn't enough, Anderson also ranks in the top 10 in run stop win rate on the edge.
Of course, Anderson looks just as devastating and unblockable on the tape. The Texans have lined up Anderson on the interior more often this season with devastating results. At 243 pounds, he shouldn't be able to bully offensive linemen, but he routinely just drives them backward for pressure or runs through double-teams as if they are high school linemen. And he still has the speed and athleticism around the edge to be completely unblockable in key moments. He might be the best player in the league at any position.
Offensive Player of the Year
My top pick five weeks ago: Bijan Robinson
As always, I keep quarterbacks away from this award since they almost invariably end up being the top Most Valuable Player contenders. There's no sense in giving an MVP who plays only on offense another award for Offensive Player of the Year, nor does it make sense for somebody who plays only offense to be the Most Valuable Player and somehow simultaneously not the Offensive Player of the Year.
I felt as if there were four players who had reasonable cases to be in the top three here. In the end, Bijan Robinson was the odd man out by virtue of his four fumbles, which tie him with three other running backs for the most in the league this season. Robinson has improved as a receiver and pass blocker, and he's obviously one of the best pure runners in the league. He's still a great player, but the fumbles are the one big issue for a running back who might otherwise be perfect.
3. Jahmyr Gibbs, RB, Detroit Lions
In moving to a high-volume role for the Lions, Gibbs has absorbed a massive workload. He hit 22 carries on only one occasion last season; he's averaging more than 22 rushes per game this season, with the 2023 first-round pick on pace to finish with 377 carries. It's no surprise that his rushing efficiency has slipped, but Gibbs is still fifth in success rate and seventh in yards per carry among backs with 100 attempts or more this season.
Gibbs is fractionally behind Braelon Allen atop the leaderboard for explosive play rate and Jaylen Warren for first down rate as a runner. Combining massive volume with high-end efficiency makes Gibbs a more valuable runner than he has been in years past. And of course, he's still adding 35 yards per game as a receiver. Gibbs has gone from being one of several great playmakers in the Lions' offense to being the focal point, given that he has more yards from scrimmage than Amon-Ra St. Brown and Jameson Williams combined.
2. Kenneth Walker III, RB, Kansas City Chiefs
It seems telling that anything short of a 100-yard, two-touchdown game from the reigning Super Bowl MVP feels like a quiet week. Walker has been a big-play machine since joining his new team. Warren is the only player averaging more yards per carry and yards after contact per rush attempt. Walker is also forcing missed tackles on 38% of attempts, just ahead of Gibbs for the highest rate in the league.
The big concern for Walker in years past had been his success rate, which was usually closer to the bottom of the league than the top, with the Seahawks trading a relative lack of efficiency for big plays. This season? Walker's 47.8% success rate is the second-best mark in the NFL among backs with 100 carries or more, trailing only Christian McCaffrey. He has also been more of a threat as a receiver than ever before, scoring four touchdowns and converting three third downs through the air. He has been the best offensive free agent signing of the offseason.
1. Jaxon Smith-Njigba, WR, Seattle Seahawks
JSN is just on another level from every other receiver in football at the moment. Smith-Njigba is two receptions short of being in position to win the receiving triple crown. He's averaging 115.1 receiving yards per game, 13 full yards ahead of Puka Nacua in second place. And with the Seahawks relying so heavily on him, Smith-Njigba is averaging 3.7 yards per route run. Second-place Christian Watson is closer to ninth place than he is to JSN in first.
Of course, Smith-Njigba is doing all of this with Sam Darnold and Drew Lock throwing him the football. The Seahawks have no run game to speak of, and with Smith-Njigba's fellow receivers struggling to move the needle, he has been responsible for just under 50% of Seattle's receiving yards on the season. Nobody else in the league is over 40% through nine games, and no player has topped 45% of his team's receiving yards in a full season since Brandon Marshall racked up 45.7% of the receiving yards for the Bears in 2012. As good as Smith-Njigba was last season, he has been even better in 2026.
MVP
My top pick five weeks ago: Brock Purdy
Welp. This one isn't very easy. Smith-Njigba has a legitimate case to be in the discussion here, but there are just so many quarterbacks playing at a high level right now. My first cut from the short list narrowed my choices down to only six. That left out Caleb Williams (sat out two games and was a turnover machine against the Bucs last time out), Jared Goff (14th in Total QBR) and Patrick Mahomes (hasn't had to shoulder as significant of a workload this year with Kenneth Walker stepping in while throwing more than 36% of his passes at or behind the line of scrimmage).
The first one out from the final six was C.J. Stroud, who has been fantastic after a frustrating end to the 2025 postseason. With virtually no running game and Nico Collins sidelined for a stretch in September, Stroud has kept his sack rate down and thrown only two interceptions on 282 pass attempts. He's averaging 8 yards per attempt and ranks fifth in QBR. It has been a half-season of the Texans' defense letting their quarterback down as opposed to the other way around, which is something I'm not sure many people had in the cards heading into 2026.
Next is Josh Allen, who is, well, Josh Allen. He makes plays that nobody else could make, and he added a 17-yard shovel pass for a touchdown to his repertoire this season. Allen also adds more value than anybody with his legs in terms of rushing EPA, both on scrambles (he tormented the Rams late in Buffalo's victory in Los Angeles) and by picking up short-yardage conversions on sneaks and designed runs.
Allen's best stretch as a pro was at the end of 2024 and beginning of 2025, when he stopped taking sacks and throwing interceptions. That probably wasn't going to be sustainable, and he's back around his typical negative play rate now. Allen is taking sacks on nearly 7% of his dropbacks and has six interceptions and two sack-fumbles on 273 dropbacks this season. He was lucky to get away with what should have been a game-ending interception against the Texans before throwing the winning touchdown pass on the very next play. Allen is the highest-ceiling quarterback in the league, but others have been more consistent.
And then, just short of the top three, there's Jordan Love, who is the league's best big-play hunter and a throwback to a different era of quarterback. With virtually no run game and an offensive line that has been pockmarked by injuries, Love has been relentless in chasing down chunk plays in the passing game. A league-high 18% of Love's throws travel 20 or more yards in the air. He has completed more deep passes than anyone, a figure that would be even higher if his receivers weren't collectively posting the league's highest drop rate (5.9%).
Love does all of that while avoiding negative plays. His sack rate (4.8%) and interception rate (1.8%) are both above average, although the interceptions he does throw admittedly look awful. The Packers' standout hasn't done anything as a runner, and the style doesn't lead Love to move the chains at a league-average rate, which is why he falls just short of the top three. But Love might be my favorite quarterback in the league to watch right now.
3. Trevor Lawrence, QB, Jacksonville Jaguars
In 2022, Lawrence got white-hot during the second half of the season under a new coach in Doug Pederson, leading the Jags to an unexpected playoff berth. The hope was naturally that Lawrence had made the leap and would be an MVP contender in his third season. Though the Jags started 8-3 that next season, Lawrence wasn't really playing at that level before sustaining an ankle injury that tanked the team's season. The Jaguars missed the playoffs outright, Lawrence was awful down the stretch, and then he struggled through another injury-hit season in 2024.
In 2025, Lawrence went nuclear down the stretch after growing more comfortable in the offense operated by his new head coach. This time, though, Lawrence and Liam Coen have gotten the version of Lawrence we saw at the end of last season to stick around into 2026. So much of that is Lawrence staying in rhythm and feeling confident in the answers he's getting from the offense. He can create out of structure, but 94% of Lawrence's throws are classified as either quick game or in-rhythm passes, a major step forward for a quarterback who had the fourth-worst QBR in the league on throws after four or more seconds with the football in his career.
In years past, the Lawrence experience was topsy-turvy. It has been so much smoother this season. After four multiturnover games a season ago and a fifth in the playoff loss to the Bills, Lawrence doesn't have a single one so far this season. The only passer creating explosive plays more often than Lawrence (20.6%) is Allen (21.1%). After averaging between 7.0-7.2 yards in each of the past four seasons, Lawrence leads all quarterbacks in averaging 8.6 yards per attempt so far this season. He has the lowest off-target rate (9.2%) of any quarterback in the league and leads the NFL in QBR (91.5) on throws from outside the pocket, having developed a trademark throw when he's flushed from the pocket to the left and consistently manages to find an open receiver for a big play.
There's no obvious flaw in Lawrence's performance, but the quarterbacks ahead of him have just been a tiny bit better across the board. One QB adds significant value with his legs, and if we compare Lawrence to the other as pure passers, the guy I have at No. 1 rates ahead of the Jaguars star in most categories. If this version of Lawrence had been up for contention a year ago, he would have been my MVP pick at midseason. Here, against stiffer competition, he's third.
2. Brock Purdy, QB, San Francisco 49ers
The positive play machine. Purdy was my MVP pick after four games, having thrown one interception while taking zero sacks through one month. That's no longer the case, with Purdy throwing four picks and taking eight sacks over the ensuing four games, including San Francisco's first and only loss of the season at Atlanta. A bad Purdy interception with 2:42 to go and a chance to take the lead sealed it for the Falcons.
Of course, Purdy is still running the league's lowest sack rate at 3.3%. And in terms of creating good plays, he leads the league in QBR and EPA per dropback. He's also No. 1 in success rate as a passer. And though Allen understandably gets plenty of attention as the league's most significant running quarterback, Purdy's not far behind. He has been a valuable short-yardage option this season, with his 23 first downs as a runner ranking second behind Allen. He's third in rushing EPA behind Allen and Drake Maye.
Purdy's numbers often get discounted by virtue of his offensive infrastructure, which is stocked with playmakers and operated by Kyle Shanahan. Though the 49ers have still had George Kittle and Christian McCaffrey on the field all season, and Mike Evans in the lineup for most of the season, Purdy deserves more of the credit for being the guy driving the offense. More than a third of his pass attempts have gone to players such as Jordan Watkins, Jacob Cowing and Demarcus Robinson, and Purdy has made them look good in the process. Evans looked revitalized after a down season (amid injuries) in Tampa Bay in 2025.
Lawrence and Purdy would both be legitimate MVP picks. I just lean ever so slightly toward the guy in Cincinnati being the best in football.
1. Joe Burrow, QB, Cincinnati Bengals
The debate with Burrow as opposed to other quarterbacks has been the presence of Ja'Marr Chase and Tee Higgins at wide receiver, giving the 2020 No. 1 pick the best 1-2 punch at wideout of any quarterback in football. Of course, those three were on the field together for only 35% of Cincinnati's offensive snaps between 2023 and 2025, which (combined with a defense that wasn't drafted well and seemed allergic to tackling) was why the Bengals missed the playoffs three consecutive times.
Well, here's what I'll say about cause and effect. ESPN tracks a statistic called precise pass rate, which measures how often a quarterback hits his receiver in stride with a pass in or near the torso. Burrow's precise pass rate this season is 63.5%. The second-place quarterback, Caleb Williams, is at 58.5%. He's closer to 12th than he is to Burrow in first. We have precise pass rate going back to 2017, and the only players with a better one are ... Burrow in 2021 and Drew Brees in 2019.
Burrow's run to the Super Bowl in 2021 had stood as his best individual season. He's back at that level this year. He's completing 74% of his passes, both a career high and the best mark in the NFL. Burrow is averaging 8.1 yards per pass attempt, the first time he has topped 8 yards per throw since 2021. His completion percentage over expected (plus-7.2%, per Next Gen Stats), success rate (52.6%) and first-down rate (40.2%) are all career highs and rank at or very near the top of the league.
On top of all that, the sack issues that plagued Burrow earlier in his career have faded. The one weakness for him in 2021 was that he took sacks on nearly 9% of his dropbacks, an issue that nearly cost the Bengals in the playoffs against the Titans and then did cost them in the second half of the Super Bowl against the Rams. Some of that was obviously on an underwhelming offensive line, but Burrow also bore some responsibility.
Burrow's processing speed and confidence in his receivers has allowed him to get the ball out at one of the NFL's quickest rates in recent years. Amarius Mims' emergence as an elite right tackle over the past year or so has given the Bengals an anchor they can trust one-on-one in pass protection. Burrow's sack rate is down to 4.8%, nearly half of where it was during that Super Bowl season.
He's the best pure passer in football right now, and though Lawrence and Purdy both benefit from effective run games, Burrow has mostly had to operate without an effective run game this season. It's a very close race, but for now, I have Burrow just ahead of the pack for MVP.