Ballon d’Or 2026: Can Bayern’s Harry Kane end England’s 25 years of hurt?

When the 2026 Ballon d’Or ceremony gets under way at the London Palladium this Monday, much of England will hope it serves as a good omen.

After all, the English haven’t seen one of their own lift the golden ball – football’s most prestigious individual award – in 25 years.

Michael Owen was the embodiment of English pride when he won the accolade in 2001. Now, it is Harry Kane who could bring his nation an honour every footballer dreams of.

So, what are Kane’s odds of winning the Ballon d’Or? Al Jazeera takes a look:

The best season of Kane’s career bodes well for Ballon d’Or

Remember the time when Lionel Messi and Cristiano Ronaldo scored 50-plus goals for fun? When a football forward’s goal tally looked more like a batsman’s cricket score?

Kane’s 2025-26 goal-scoring exploit is the closest we have experienced to that in recent years.

The England captain’s 73-goal performance last season was the finest display the world has seen since Argentinian legend Messi’s 82-goal tally in 2011-12.

“I’ve never liked to talk about myself too much,” Kane said in an interview last month.

“The only thing I would say is that last season was incredible, on a personal level and as a team.

“It was, by far, the best season of my life.”

Age is no problem for England and Bayern Munich’s Kane

He scored an incredible 36 goals last season, making Kane the Bundesliga’s top scorer for the third year running and earning him a second European Golden Shoe, while finishing nine goals clear of Manchester City’s Erling Haaland in the continental race.

The Bayern Munich forward’s statistics look even more impressive given he is seemingly peaking at 33, an age when most forwards are far beyond their prime.

Kane is bidding to join the ranks of Messi, Luka Modric and Karim Benzema, some of the recipients of the last 10 editions who won the Ballon d’Or in their 30s.

Standing in his way, however, are two very talented juniors – Spain’s superstar-in-the-making, Lamine Yamal, who won the 2026 FIFA World Cup shortly after his 19th birthday, and France’s 2018 world champion, Kylian Mbappe, who is 27.

When Kane made his Premier League debut for Tottenham Hotspur in 2014, Yamal was still in primary school, and Mbappe was in high school.

Could Champions League and World Cup woes hurt Kane’s bid?

Since Kane moved from London to Munich, the forward has taken German club football by storm, and 2025-26 was no different. He finished the campaign with three trophies: the Bundesliga title, DFB-Pokal (the German Cup) and Franz Beckenbauer Supercup (the German Supercup).

But his failure to make an impact in the Champions League semifinal cost Bayern Europe’s most coveted club trophy, and the same was the case at the recent World Cup, where he finished third with England.

While World Cup success is not a strict requirement to win the Ballon d’Or, having a world title on your CV definitely helps. Furthermore, being pitted against 2026 World Cup winners Yamal and Rodri – also the 2024 Ballon d’Or recipient – could hurt Kane’s odds.

Recent history suggests that winning a title in one of the major tournaments has become almost a prerequisite.

Only four of the previous 19 Ballon d’Or winners failed to lift either the Champions League, World Cup, European Championship or Copa America during the year they won the honour.

Those exceptions include record eight-time Ballon d’Or recipient Messi and five-time winner Ronaldo.

Kane is the bookmakers’ favourite to win the Ballon d’Or

Only time will tell whether falling short in major competitions’ crucial knockout rounds will decide Kane’s fate, but for now, he is the bookmakers’ leading candidate for the trophy.

As of Tuesday, Kane holds about 65-70 percent market share to become the successor to Ousmane Dembele, the 2025 Ballon d’Or winner.

Unlike other Ballon d’Or contenders, especially the outspoken Yamal and Mbappe, who are campaigning hard for the award, Kane has been relatively quiet.

Bayern are speaking up for their leader, having put together a video in which teammates said Kane should win.

“He deserves to win it, 100 percent, without a doubt,” said Colombian Luis Diaz, who is also on the shortlist.

If Kane wins the award, he would become only the fifth English player to do so after Stanley Matthews, Bobby Charlton, Kevin Keegan and Michael Owen.