The chances of establishing a roadmap to phase out fossil fuels remain doubtful despite support “ramping up”.
A new draft text on the outcome of COP30 negotiations has been released today (21 November) but all mentions of fossil fuels have been erased.
The proposed deal has sparked heavy criticism from a range of experts and environmental organisations, who argue the text “may as well be blank” as it does little to prevent global temperatures from exceeding 1.5℃.
A roadmap to ending fossil fuels
While transitioning away from fossil fuel production was not originally on COP30’s official agenda, political momentum around the issue has transformed it into a flashpoint discussion.
What countries are actually being asked to agree on is not even a roadmap to phase out fossil fuels, but more of a roadmap to a roadmap. This could see each country set out its own targets, with no specific measures being enforced.
There has been backsliding on the issue following COP28 in Dubai, where almost 200 countries agreed to move away fromfossil fuelsin energy systems in a “just, orderly and equitable manner” to achieve net zero by 2050.
Earlier this week (18 November), ministers from more than 20 countries convened a press conference to call for a final deal to explicitly include a commitment to develop a roadmap for phasing out fossil fuels.
Since then, more than 80 countries including the UK, Germany and the Netherlands – as well as developing nations such as Colombia and Kenya – have backed a roadmap.
On 19 November, Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva highlighted the issue, arguing that the world needs to reduce its greenhouse gas emissions.
“We need to start thinking about how to live without fossil fuels,” he added.
It has been widely reported that the President will take the fossil fuel phaseout plan to the G20 summit if a deal isn’t struck during the last day of negotiations. Thebreakout of a fire at a COP30 venue yesterday (20 November) also delayed some key meetings.
With the summit scheduled to end at 6 pm local time today and no sign of a final deal, it is looking likely that COP30 will run into overtime.
COP30’s draft text – what does it actually say?
At the UN climate summit, draft agreements usually go through many revisions before a final deal, as all of the nearly 200 countries at the talks need to agree for it to pass.
Three possible routes for achieving an agreement on a fossil fuel phaseout were included in an earlier version of the draft deal. These have now been dropped following opposition from oil-producing nations.
The new proposal by the Presidency calls for a recognition of the need for an “effective and progressive response to the urgent threat of climate change”.
It emphasises the inherent connection between pursuing efforts to limit global temperature increase to 1.5℃ and puts forward a pathway towards “low greenhouse gas emissions and climate-resilient development” but fails to link this to fossil fuels.
The draft text also acknowledges barriers faced by developing countries to transition to cleaner climate policies. This includes financial and technical constraints, as well as limited institutional capacity.
Calls to triple the financing available to help nations adapt to climate change by 2030, from 2025 levels, are also cited in the draft.
A ‘shamefully weak’ text
It is widely reported that fossil fuel-rich nations such as Saudi Arabia have been the biggest obstacles to establishing a phaseout road map.
The “weak” text has already resulted in dozens of countries signing a pre-emptive letter arguing that it is unacceptable to not address the importance of transitioning away from fossil fuels.
Bronwen Tucker of Oil Change International argues that despite the large number of supporting countries, rich parties are “still refusing to deliver the debt-free public finance on fair terms” that is key to transitioning away from fossil fuels.
“We came here to secure a COP30 package for justice and equity,” a spokesperson for the organisation says.
“The Presidency has presented a shamefully weak text that fails to mention fossil fuels, fails to deliver accountability towards rich countries’ finance obligations, and only makes vague promises on adaptation.”
Bruce Douglas, CEO of the Global Renewables Alliance (GRA), says countries will “miss an open goal” if they fail to agree on a roadmap to transition away from fossil fuels at COP30.
“We echo the calls from more than 80 countries who have signed the Belém Declaration: the world urgently needs a pragmatic roadmap that will ensure the transition is fast, just and managed.”
“Phasing out fossil fuels already makes business sense, with the private sector leading the way. Investment in renewables is outpacing fossil fuels two-to-one,” he adds.
“We now need governments to align policy and finance, embed renewable targets into national plans, and unleash the private sector to invest and secure clean growth.”