Despite recent efforts to boost European defence production, the bloc remains “highly vulnerable” and heavily reliant on the United States—particularly for major, high-end defence equipment—according to a new analysis by the Brussels-based economic think tank Bruegel.
Trade statistics show that the value of weapons imported to Europe increased from approximately $3.4 billion for the period 2019–2021 to $8.5 billion for 2022–2024 across the 27 member states, with the US leading this increase despite concerns over its capabilities.
“Europe has the industrial production capacities to increase production of tanks and infantry fighting vehicles,” said Guntramm Wolff, Bruegel’s senior fellow, during the launch of the report Fit for war by 2030? on Friday morning.* “What is more concerning is the more modern weapons systems, where we have limited capabilities,” he added.
Bruegel and Kiel Institute for the World Economy researchers have detected that the reliance on the US for certain defence and security domains is very high, including hypersonic missiles, next generation jets, AI integrated systems and intelligence services.
“There has been some increase in various systems—artillery in particular has grown substantially—but these increases are still relatively small compared to the overall demand,” Wolff said.
For example, the report notes that Europe held 1,627 main battle tanks in 2023, while projections suggest 2,359 to 2,920 will be needed in the coming years, depending on the scenario. As for air defence systems such as the Patriot and SAMP/T, stock levels in 2024 stood at 35 units—far below the 89 required.
“Major investments in research and development will be essential,” the authors advise EU policymakers and national governments, especially given Europe’s lagging defence R&D compared to global competitors.
In 2023, Europe invested €13 billion in military R&D. By contrast, China invested €21 billion, while the US allocated a staggering $145 billion.
Money won’t fix everything, Europe
In March, the European Commission unveiled its rearmament initiative—now called Defence Readiness 2030—with a target of mobilising up to €800 billion to address the bloc’s most critical defence shortfalls.
Meanwhile, NATO is expected to call on its 32 members to increase defence spending to 5% of GDP by 2032—or potentially by 2035—a target Spain has already criticised as “unreasonable”.
But simply increasing budgets won’t solve the problem, the report warns.
“More military spending will not automatically and immediately translate into military capabilities, especially if the defence industrial base is already under strain,” the researchers argue. The real challenge, they stress, lies in converting funding into tangible capabilities through a coherent, forward-looking strategic and operational plan.
With the European defence market still highly fragmented, greater integration would improve cost-effectiveness. But alongside procurement reform, military planning must also be strengthened.
“This is really about rebuilding the ability to understand war through the lens of peer conflict—and that is just as much of a challenge as disbursing the money,” said Dr. Alexandr Burilkov, assistant director for research at the GLOBSEC GeoTech Center.
According to the researchers’ estimates, even the proposed €800 billion may fall short—insufficient to cover the development of missile capabilities, procurement of tanks, artillery, and infantry fighting vehicles, modernisation of forces, and investment in air defence systems.