Iran suffered huge military losses during the Israeli strikes and has limited capacities to hit back, according to an independent security expert Claude Moniquet. Moniquet served as an intelligence officer in the French services and has written several books about the region. He told Euronews that Israel committed an act of war on Iran.
“I will not call an operation that involved more than 200 planes, missiles, 300 strikes, 100 sites hit, and at least a dozen or fifteen Iranian leaders eliminated a limited operation. It is an act of war that has been expected for 25 years. For 25 years, the Israelis have been saying that they will not tolerate Iran having an atomic bomb. Iran has been warned multiple times.”
Iran suffered a huge military failure
Moniquet said that Iran now has four options by way of response, of which the first – sending drones towards Israel – has already begun.
“They have already started trying to use drones to deliver direct strikes on Israel. The second possibility is a joint operation with proxies like Yemen’s Huthis,” he said.
The third possibility, according to Moniquet, that they will deploy “one way or another” in the long or medium term, is “the use of terrorism”.
“Iran is a terrorist state that has attacked, including Europe and France, multiple times over the past 40 years,” he said.
“And the last possibility, if there were an escalation, would be the blocking of the Strait of Hormuz, which would be a disaster for Europe.”
He added that the chance of a full-scale war in the region is not out of the question, but added that Iran has limited capacities for that.
“The extent of their responses will determine what happens next, and we can effectively fall into an all-out war. Now, quite clearly, I don’t think the Iranians have the capacity to wage an all-out war against Israel, which has air supremacy in the region. We have seen that Iran’s military-security system is totally disorganised.”
The conflict will change the Middle East
According to Moniquet, Israel systematically weakened Iranian proxies in the region with the war against Hezbollah and Hamas in the past few years, and now delivered a blow that will change the balance of power.
“Iran today has undergone, whatever they say, a very, very heavy military failure, and it is not over. However, behind Hezbollah, behind Hamas, behind the Houthis in Yemen, what do we find? We find the Iranians. So what is happening, if the Israelis go far enough, is likely to change the whole geopolitical map in the Middle East.”
The expert added that this could also offer a chance for the Iranian population to revolt against the its leadership.
Israeli interests in Europe might be at risk of attack
Claude Moniquet said the conflict puts Europe on a high security risk footing.
“They may well ask a Hezbollah cell or an Iranian cell like the one that was dismantled in London a few weeks ago to strike somewhere in Europe. This is an important possibility, and it means that Jewish communities, Israeli diplomatic and commercial interests, Israeli boats, Israeli planes, but probably also American interests, are now in a position of risk in Europe and could be hit.”
Moniquet said that the European Union has lost influence in the region and has no say in diplomacy over the future of the Middle East.
“For Europe, but everyone sees that the European, as they say in soccer, is sitting on the sidelines. Negotiations were taking place between the Americans and the Iranians, the Europeans were excluded. Europeans have been pretty much excluded from all major diplomatic manouevres around the war in Gaza or the war in Lebanon.”
The main reason behind this loss of influence, Moniquet believes, is to be found in Europe’s dwindling military power.