The US president has vowed to impose a 50% duty on imports from the EU, citing stalled trade negotiations
The German economy could lose up to €200 billion by the end of 2028 if tariffs of 50% remain in place until the end of US President Donald Trump’s term in office, according to a German Economic Institute (IW) report published on Friday.
The US is Germany’s main trading partner, with total goods exchange valued at €253 billion ($287 billion) in 2024, according to official data. At €17.7 billion, Germany’s export surplus in the trade of goods with the US was the highest among all of its trading partners in the first quarter of 2025.
The Federal Statistical Office also reported that exports to the US exceeded imports by almost 75%.
From 2025 to 2028, German economic output would on average be 1.1% lower than without the increased tariffs, the IW report said. If the EU retaliates with similar countermeasures, the total damage could increase to €250 billion by 2028.
In a post on Truth Social on Friday, Trump claimed that the EU was originally formed “for the primary purpose of taking advantage of the US on trade.” He went on to say that the bloc is “very difficult to deal with.”
He accused the EU of imposing harmful economic policies, taxes, and regulations, as well as launching “unfair and unjustified lawsuits against American companies,” which he said have contributed to a “totally unacceptable” trade deficit.
According to the US Trade Representative’s office, the deficit currently stands at around $240 billion per year. Trump went on to announce that, due to stalled negotiations, he is recommending a 50% tariff on all goods from the EU, effective June 1, 2025.
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent echoed the criticism later that day on Fox News, saying he believes the president views the EU’s proposals as falling short of the standards set by other major trading partners.
“I’m not going to negotiate on TV, but I hope this serves as a wake-up call for the EU,” he said.
The EU is committed to securing a trade agreement with the US based on mutual respect rather than threats, EU Trade Commissioner Maros Sefcovic wrote on X on Friday. He added that “EU-US trade is unmatched and must be guided by mutual respect,” but that the bloc is ready to defend its interests.
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