Good morning. Mark Carney’s Liberal Party is projected to win the election in Canada. Celebrating the victory, Carney had a message for his supporters: “As I’ve been warning for months, America wants our land, our resources, our water, our country. Never.”
In today’s big story, it’s the 100th day since President Donald Trump took office again. BI explored how people feel, how markets have changed, and what tariffs could mean for what’s coming next.
What’s on deck
Markets: Five charts show how Elon Musk and Tesla have fared since Trump took office.
Tech: ChatGPT has a flattery problem. Sam Altman says a fix is coming.
Business: Walmart is America’s favorite grocer, but don’t underestimate Costco.
But first, what a wild start.
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The big story
100 days of uncertainty
Madison Hoff/BI
He’s been busy. He issued a blizzard of executive orders. He launched an unprecedented global trade war and gutted large swaths of the federal government. He spoke about annexing Greenland, taking control of the Panama Canal, and making Canada the 51st state.
The first 100 days of Trump’s second term can be defined by one word: uncertainty.
Consumers don’t appear to like it. The University of Michigan consumer sentiment index has declined every month this year — and it may deteriorate further once the full effects of tariffs take hold, a Moody’s Analytics economist told BI.
Madison Hoff/BI
Peek at it through your fingers if you must, but the chart above is a scary one: the S&P 500’s start to the year.
After Trump announced new tariffs on April 2, the stock market suffered a historic sell-off. The index then somewhat recovered, only to dip again on April 16 after Fed Chair Jerome Powell warned of higher inflation and slower economic growth — the dreaded stagflation scenario.
Through it all, one chart climbs higher: the US Economic Policy Uncertainty Index, which has almost doubled since January.
Predicting what comes next is a tall order, but implementing tariffs could result in a surge in inflation and more stock sell-offs, BI’s Madison Hoff and Matthew Fox write. More reorganization in the federal government could also mean more job seekers for fewer positions, sending unemployment higher.
BI examined sentiment data, markets chaos, and interviews with small business owners, consumers, and economists. They point toward one thing: Americans are worried.
3 things in markets
Eduardo Muñoz Alvarez/VIEWpress/Corbis via Getty Images
1. This week is going to be huge for the stock market. Investors will get new data on inflation, the labor market, and economic growth, while four of the Magnificent Seven are set to report earnings. Each event could majorly shift markets.
2. How Tesla has suffered from Elon Musk’s MAGA moment. Tesla’s stock price is down 43% since its mid-December peak, and Musk’s net worth has plunged by some $150 billion. Five charts show how the car company and its CEO have fared since Trump took office.
3. When could a recession happen? Apollo’s chief economist outlined how Trump’s tariffs — especially duties on Chinese goods — could kick off a downturn, with effects starting as soon as next month.
3 things in tech
Courtesy of Laura Toulme, Jonathan Melke, and Nehan Sethi; Getty Images; Tyler Le/BI
1. Big Law is losing top talent to AI startups. Disillusioned with Big Law’s heavy workloads and the long road to partner, young attorneys are betting on AI legal-tech startups instead. Startups offer stock options and flexible work, but they still can’t match Big Law salaries.
2. Activists want Meta’s receipts on content moderation. Anti-hate groups are pressing Meta shareholders to back a new proposal that includes a report on how Meta handles hate speech. Meta’s board has urged shareholders to vote against the proposal.
3. ChatGPT can be a major suck-up. Recent updates have led ChatGPT to really hype up users, sparking debates about whether the behavior is a growth strategy or an “emergent” feature. Here’s what OpenAI CEO Sam Altman had to say.
3 things in business
Paul Weaver/SOPA Images/LightRocket via Getty Images
1. Domino’s delivery bites the dust. Domino’s delivery sales fell 1.5% in Q1 as its carryout sales rose 1%, suggesting customers opted for pickup to save money. It could signal a coming change in delivery trends as recession fears rise.
2. Walmart still reigns as America’s grocery king. For the third year running, more than one in five dollars spent on groceries in the US goes to Walmart, according to consumer analytics firm Numerator. But Costco is rapidly gaining ground despite the competition.
3. A federal judge seems poised to hand Big Law another win. DOJ attorney Richard Lawson argued that Trump’s executive order targeting the firm Jenner & Block wasn’t illegal. A federal judge wasn’t having it, calling Lawson’s interpretation “a pretty strange reading.”
In other news
What’s happening today
- General Motors, Spotify, Snap, Starbucks, and Coca-Cola report earnings.
- Mark Zuckerberg and Satya Nadella discuss AI trends at LlamaCon.
The Insider Today team: Dan DeFrancesco, deputy editor and anchor, in New York (on parental leave). Hallam Bullock, senior editor, in London. Grace Lett, editor, in Chicago. Amanda Yen, associate editor, in New York. Lisa Ryan, executive editor, in New York. Meghan Morris, deputy bureau chief, in Singapore. Ella Hopkins, associate editor, in London. Elizabeth Casolo, fellow, in Chicago.