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For Abhijit Kumar, 32, the election season in Bihar, a state in Eastern India which is second largest state by population, is not about politics but survival. By day, he works at a small public relations agency, crafting campaign slogans and managing social media for a local candidate. By evening, he trades his laptop for a motorbike, driving passengers around Patna for a ride-hailing app. A political science graduate who could never find a stable job, Abhijit calls this month-long rush his “double shift of democracy.”

“I’ve heard every promise since I was a teenager – jobs, clean governance, better roads,” he said, pausing for tea outside Gandhi Maidan in Patna, the state’s capital. “After voting day, everything disappears. But for one month, politics at least gives me two jobs.”

His words capture the quiet frustration echoing through Bihar as the state goes into a high-stakes assembly election that will determine who governs in the state for the next five years. On Thursday, almost 79 million voters cast their ballots in the first phase of Legislative Assembly elections. According to the Election Commission of India, the first phase saw the highest ever voter turnout of 64.66% in the history of Bihar.

The state, one of India’s poorest and most densely populated with a total population of 130 million, has long been a paradox: politically vibrant but economically fragile, rich in rhetoric but poor in opportunity.

Bihar sends 40 lawmakers to India’s lower house of parliament, making it critical for any ruling coalition in New Delhi. This time, Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) is contesting 101 of the state’s 243 assembly seats in alliance with Chief Minister Nitish Kumar’s Janata Dal (United). Facing them is a united opposition led by the Indian National Congress and regional socialist groups under the banner of the Mahagathbandhan, or Grand Alliance.

What makes this election stand out is not just the political arithmetic, but the mood. For the first time since Modi’s rise to national power in 2014, the BJP’s dominance in Bihar appears uncertain. The air is thick with discontent over unemployment, migration, and the government’s controversial voter list revision – officially a “special intensive revision,” but described by opposition parties as a selective purge that has excluded millions of eligible voters.

“It’s not just a political contest,” said Pushpendra Kumar, a former professor at the Tata Institute of Social Sciences in Patna. “It’s a test of the idea that elections in India are still a fair expression of popular will.”

For millions like Abhijit, the election is personal. Bihar’s economy continues to trail behind the rest of India. According to the Periodic Labour Force Survey, the unemployment rate among those aged 15 to 29 fell from 30.9% in 2018-19 to 9.9% in 2023-24, yet underemployment and distress migration remain widespread. “The numbers look better, but the reality hasn’t changed,” Abhijit said. “If there were real jobs here, my friends wouldn’t be driving cabs in Delhi.”

The disillusionment runs deep among Bihar’s young voters. Nearly 1.4 million people are casting their ballots for the first time this election. Many of them have grown up under Modi’s decade-long rule – a period of economic expansion nationally, but one that has done little to reverse Bihar’s chronic outmigration. “Our parents vote by caste,” said Abhijit. “We’ll vote for work.”

The state’s political map, however, remains complex. Despite fatigue and infighting, the BJP-led alliance retains an edge thanks to Nitish Kumar’s regional network and the lack of a strong alternative. But new players are stirring the waters. The Jan Suraaj Party, led by former Modi strategist Prashant Kishor, has positioned itself as a reformist force focused on governance and accountability. Its national president, Uday Singh, believes this election could reshape Bihar’s politics.

“Joblessness, migration, and debt are Bihar’s real issues,” Singh said in an interview. “People are tired of the slogans. They want a new kind of politics that deals with everyday problems. Polarization doesn’t work here anymore. Even Modi’s charisma has limits now.”

Singh’s words hint at an unusual shift. Bihar, often a bastion of caste-driven voting patterns, now shows signs of issue-based voting.

The BJP’s allies face pressure from within; dissenting leaders have protested outside the chief minister’s residence over ticket allocations. On the other side, the opposition Congress party and its allies sense an opening, particularly after the campaign of one of its key leaders, Rahul Gandhi, spotlighted the alleged voter list exclusions.

“The BJP is not unbeatable here,” said Pushpendra Kumar. “If the opposition stays united and focuses on everyday issues – jobs, prices, corruption – the ruling alliance will feel the heat.”

At the same time, the entry of film star and controversial figure Pawan Singh, fielded by the BJP’s allies, has drawn criticism for his history of misogynistic remarks. “It was a mistake,” said Dr. Vidarthi Vikas, an economist at the A.N. Sinha Institute of Social Studies. “There’s already discontent among women voters. Bringing in someone like him will alienate them further.” Pawan has now announced he will not contest the elections. 

Women, in fact, are emerging as Bihar’s most decisive voters. In the 2024 general elections, more women voted in Bihar than men, largely because of migration. Many of them are beneficiaries of cash transfers under schemes launched by Nitish Kumar’s government – such as the recent Rs 10,000 ($113) payment to 2.1 million women – but these gestures have created as much anger as gratitude.

“They know it’s a one-time trick,” said activist Nivedita Jha, who works with self-help groups in rural Bihar. “They are grateful for the money, but also resentful because it comes only when votes are due. These women talk politics now – they compare what was promised and what was delivered.”

That changing gender dynamic could redefine Bihar’s political playbook. With men absent and women asserting themselves as decision-makers, politicians are being forced to rethink how they approach rural voters. “Women are now the ones keeping Bihar running,” Jha said. “They farm, manage homes, collect rations, and vote. They remember who came to their door and who didn’t.”

Economist Vidarthi Vikas says the fatigue is real. “The BJP has no big face in Bihar,” he said. “Nitish Kumar’s alliance is wobbling, and Modi’s magic is fading in states where development has stalled. People want performance, not personality.”

Yet, despite the restlessness, most analysts predict a close contest rather than a dramatic upheaval. A C-Voter opinion poll puts the BJP-led alliance slightly ahead at 40%, with the opposition close behind at 38.3%  – a statistical dead heat in a state famous for springing surprises.

For the BJP, the stakes go far beyond Bihar’s borders. The outcome will set the tone for a series of crucial assembly elections in 2026 and 2027, including in West Bengal, Assam, Kerala, and Uttar Pradesh. A strong performance could reaffirm Modi’s hold on India’s political map; a setback could embolden the opposition and hint at an undercurrent of fatigue among voters nationwide.